GOP Closer Than Ever To Taking The House

The fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is entering its final, nail-biting stretch. With several critical races still undecided, lawmakers and voters are anxiously awaiting the outcome that will determine which party holds the majority when the new Congress convenes next year.

As of now, Republicans are edging closer to securing the 218 seats needed for a majority in the House. On Friday evening, Republicans had captured 216 seats, while Democrats held 208, according to Decision Desk HQ. However, 11 races remain too close to call. Democrats lead in three of those contests, while Republicans are ahead in eight.

Despite the uncertainty, Republicans aren’t wasting any time in claiming victory. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) has confidently stated that the GOP will retain control of the House, and he’s already moving forward with plans to keep the gavel. On the other hand, Democrats are holding out hope for a last-minute reversal, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) acknowledging that the final outcome remains undecided, especially as ballots continue to be counted in Oregon, Arizona, and California.

In the meantime, several key races have been decided. Notably, Republicans Rep. David Schweikert and Rep. David Valadao secured reelection in Arizona’s 1st and California’s 22nd Districts, respectively. Meanwhile, Democrats have seen victories in some traditionally blue districts, including Rep. Andrea Salinas in Oregon’s 6th District and Rep. Julia Brownley in California’s 26th.

One of the most closely watched races is in California’s 21st District, where Rep. Jim Costa (D) is fighting for his political life against Republican Michael Maher. Costa, a 10-term incumbent, holds a narrow lead of just over 1,300 votes — a margin that has been shrinking as more ballots are counted. This district, which President Biden won by over 20 points in 2020, had been considered a safe Democratic seat, but Maher’s strong performance has made it one of the tightest races of the cycle. A win for Maher would flip the district red and signal a shift in California’s Central Valley.

Another intense battle is in California’s 9th District, where Rep. Josh Harder (D) is clinging to a slim lead over Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. Harder, who has represented this district since 2018, is facing an uphill battle in a district that Biden won by 12 points in 2020. A victory for Lincoln would be a major win for Republicans in a district that had been rated “likely Democrat” by Cook Political Report.

In California’s 47th District, former Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) is locked in a tight race against Democratic state Sen. Dave Min. Baugh holds a slim lead of just over 1,000 votes, with the two candidates in a virtual dead heat. If Baugh prevails, it will mark the first time the district has been represented by a Republican since 2003. This race has garnered national attention, as it represents a major opportunity for the GOP to flip a seat that was once considered a stronghold for Democrats.

Out in Alaska, Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is fighting for her political survival in the state’s at-large district. Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in Congress in decades, is trailing Republican Nick Begich by about 4 percentage points. The race is still too close to call, but with a sizable portion of the vote still to be counted, Republicans are hopeful that Begich can secure a win in this traditionally red state, which Trump carried by more than 10 points in 2020.

The uncalled races are crucial for both parties as they vie for control of the House. With so many contests still in the balance, the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. While the GOP is confident in their prospects, Democrats are holding on to hope that they can pull off an unexpected victory in these final, high-stakes races. Only time will tell who will emerge victorious and take control of the lower chamber next year.