Will Trump Make America Great Again If Re-Elected In 2024?

Biden’s New Year Off To Rocky Start

As the year 2023 draws to a close, President Biden finds himself concluding the year with an approval rating firmly entrenched in negative territory, mirroring where he began the year.

The most recent Fox News national poll, conducted in mid-December, reveals that the president stands at a 43% approval rate and a 57% disapproval rate. Several major polls conducted this month also show Biden registering below 40% approval. As the transition from 2023 to 2024 unfolds, the average of the latest national surveys compiled by Real Clear Politics places Biden’s approval rating at 41%, with disapproval at 56%.

The significance of approval ratings cannot be overstated, serving as vital indicators of a president’s performance, influence, and popularity. This metric gains heightened attention, particularly when an incumbent seeks a second term, as is the case with the 81-year-old Biden, who is running for re-election in 2024.

During the initial six months of his tenure in the White House, Biden enjoyed approval ratings fluctuating in the low to mid-50s. However, a decline began in August 2021, precipitated by criticism of his handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and a spike in COVID-19 cases, particularly among the unvaccinated.

Factors contributing to the decline include escalating inflation since the summer of 2021, an ongoing concern for Americans, and a surge of migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico southern border. Biden’s current approval ratings fall well below those of his three most recent two-term predecessors—Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama—at a comparable point in their presidencies when they secured re-election.

Comparatively, the only recent president with similarly negative approval ratings at this stage was Biden’s immediate predecessor, Donald Trump, who Biden defeated in the 2020 election. Trump’s approval stood at 45%-53% in a December 2019 Fox News poll, and at 45%-52% at the close of 2019 according to the Real Clear Politics average at the time.

As the prospect of the 2024 election looms, Trump remains a formidable contender for the Republican presidential nomination, with indications of a potential rematch. While Biden previously held an advantage over Trump in 2024 election surveys, Trump has gained momentum in polls since October.

Despite the uncertainties associated with predictions more than a year in advance, Biden’s campaign spokesperson, Kevin Munoz, and veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse caution against dismissing the current polls outright. Munoz underscores the dynamic nature of predictions, citing the example of Gallup’s eight-point underestimation of President Obama’s eventual victory. Newhouse acknowledges the limitations of polls as predictive tools but warns against disregarding them, emphasizing potential risks for Biden’s campaign.