Red State Race Closer Than Ever

Georgia’s closely watched race for governor is entering a critical stage as Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms prepare to meet face-to-face for the first time.

Recent polling suggests the contest remains extremely competitive, with neither candidate establishing a decisive advantage and a notable percentage of voters still undecided.

Three surveys conducted in September showed Jackson holding narrow leads ranging from one to three percentage points. However, none of the polls placed either candidate above the 50% mark, leaving open the possibility that undecided voters could determine the outcome.

An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted Sept. 22-23 showed Jackson receiving 48% support compared with 46% for Bottoms. Another 6% remained undecided. Jackson’s two-point advantage fell within the survey’s three-point margin of error.

A YouGov poll conducted Sept. 15-18 produced an even tighter result. Jackson received support from 45% of registered voters, while Bottoms stood at 44%. Approximately 9% of respondents had not made a decision.

Rasmussen Reports also found Jackson narrowly ahead. Its Sept. 14 survey of 1,019 likely voters showed Jackson at 48%, Bottoms at 45%, and 7% undecided. The survey carried a three-percentage-point margin of error.

Debate Could Put Undecided Voters in the Spotlight

With the numbers so close, Tuesday night’s debate could offer both candidates an important opportunity to appeal directly to voters before early voting begins.

The one-hour event will begin at 8 p.m. and will be hosted by Atlanta News First, with coverage airing on Gray Media stations throughout Georgia.

The debate will feature a modified town hall format, allowing undecided voters to personally question Jackson and Bottoms about issues affecting Georgia.

The campaigns will not receive those questions in advance.

At the moment, the event is the only confirmed debate between the two candidates before Election Day on Nov. 3.

Two Candidates With Very Different Backgrounds

Jackson is making his first run for elected office after building a successful career in the private sector.

He founded Jackson Healthcare in 2000 and expanded the Alpharetta-based company into a major healthcare staffing and technology business with more than 20 subsidiaries.

Jackson entered the governor’s race in February and spent more than $108 million of his own money during his successful campaign for the Republican nomination.

Bottoms brings considerably more government experience to the race.

She served as mayor of Atlanta from 2018 until 2022 before joining President Joe Biden’s administration. She later worked as a senior adviser and served as director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.

Although Jackson and Bottoms have frequently criticized one another throughout the general election campaign, Tuesday’s debate will mark their first appearance together on a debate stage.

Georgia Senate Race Shows Different Picture

The tight gubernatorial race stands in sharp contrast to Georgia’s U.S. Senate contest.

The same InsiderAdvantage poll showing Jackson two points ahead of Bottoms found Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holding a wider lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins.

Ossoff received 50% support in that survey, compared with 42% for Collins, while 8% of voters remained undecided.

InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said the gap between the gubernatorial and Senate races raises the possibility of unusually high levels of split-ticket voting.

Georgia has generally not been known for large numbers of voters choosing candidates from different parties in major statewide contests. If the polling trend continues, however, some voters could support one party for governor while backing the opposing party in the Senate race.

Debate Disagreement Has Continued for Months

The two campaigns have spent months disagreeing over how many debates should take place.

Bottoms has called for several debates in different parts of Georgia, while Jackson has committed to Tuesday night’s event.

University of Georgia political communications professor David Clementson previously told the Georgia Recorder that debates rarely cause large numbers of voters to completely change their political preferences.

They can, however, help candidates strengthen enthusiasm among existing supporters while giving undecided voters a closer look at their positions and personalities.

That could be especially important in a contest where polling shows neither candidate has established a comfortable lead.

Tuesday’s town hall format may also create unpredictable moments because ordinary voters, rather than only journalists or moderators, will have an opportunity to question the candidates directly.

Georgia Prepares for Early Voting

Jackson and Bottoms are competing to replace Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who cannot seek a third consecutive term because of Georgia’s term-limit rules.

The election calendar is now moving quickly.

Georgia’s voter registration deadline is Monday. Early in-person voting begins Oct. 13 and continues through Oct. 30.

Election Day is Nov. 3.

With polling showing a race separated by only a few percentage points and thousands of voters still undecided, the first Jackson-Bottoms debate could become one of the most closely watched moments of the final month of Georgia’s gubernatorial campaign.