This will be shocking if it comes true.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says oil prices could eventually plunge to between $40 and $50 per barrel once the conflict with Iran ends and more global energy supplies return to the market.
Such a decline could have major consequences for American consumers, particularly if lower crude oil prices eventually translate into cheaper gasoline, reduced transportation costs and relief from some of the energy expenses that have strained household budgets.
Bessent made the prediction during an appearance on Fox News’ “My View with Lara Trump,” where he also delivered an optimistic assessment of the U.S. economy.
“On the other side of this, we actually could see oil prices $40 or $50 because there’s so much supply coming on. It’s just constricted right now,” Bessent said.
His forecast represents a potentially dramatic shift from current conditions as the conflict with Iran continues to create uncertainty throughout global energy markets.
Could Oil Really Fall to $40 or $50?
Bessent’s prediction centers on a straightforward economic argument: A large amount of oil supply is currently being constrained by geopolitical turmoil.
If those restrictions ease and more oil reaches the global market, increased supply could put significant downward pressure on prices.
That doesn’t mean $40 oil is guaranteed.
Oil prices are influenced by numerous factors, including global demand, OPEC+ production decisions, economic growth, inventories, refinery capacity and geopolitical events.
But Bessent believes the current energy disruption is temporary and that substantially more supply could become available after the Iran conflict ends.
For American families, the bigger question may be what that would mean for prices at the pump.
What Lower Oil Prices Could Mean for Gas Prices
Crude oil is a major component of gasoline costs, meaning a sustained decline in oil prices can eventually contribute to lower prices for motorists.
The effects can also extend far beyond filling up the family car.
Energy costs influence trucking, shipping, farming, manufacturing and air travel. Businesses can pass some of those expenses on to consumers, making energy prices an important part of the broader inflation picture.
A substantial decline in oil prices therefore could provide relief across several parts of the economy, although the size and timing of that relief would depend on market conditions.
Bessent’s $40-to-$50 forecast is especially notable because current oil markets remain under pressure from the conflict with Iran and disruptions affecting global supplies.
Bessent Says U.S. Economy Is “Very Strong”
Bessent also offered a positive assessment of America’s underlying economic conditions.
He said the economy remains “very strong” and pointed to job growth, wage growth and improving productivity.
Bessent described the country as experiencing a “productivity burst” and argued that America’s position in energy and artificial intelligence could help drive future economic growth.
But he also acknowledged something millions of households already understand: Keeping up with rising prices is not the same as getting ahead.
“Americans, on average, are breaking even,” Bessent said.
He added that working-class Americans at the lower end of the wage scale have been doing somewhat better than inflation, but said that still isn’t good enough.
Bessent believes continued wage growth could eventually produce stronger gains in purchasing power, particularly if inflationary pressures and energy costs decline.
Manufacturing and Construction Could Boost Wages
The Treasury secretary also pointed to manufacturing and construction as potential sources of future economic strength.
Bessent described the country as experiencing both a “manufacturing renaissance” and a “construction renaissance.”
His argument is that continued demand for American workers could support higher wages.
If wages continue climbing while inflation and energy prices move lower, households could see an improvement in their inflation-adjusted income.
That distinction matters.
A worker can receive a pay raise and still lose purchasing power if everyday expenses rise even faster. Real wage gains occur when income increases faster than inflation.
Bessent believes the combination of higher wages and eventually lower energy costs could improve the financial position of American workers once the current conflict subsides.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical to Oil Market
One of the biggest uncertainties involves the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway is crucial to international energy markets because significant amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas normally move through the region.
The Iran conflict has disrupted those flows and contributed to uncertainty over global energy supplies.
Bessent predicted that the strait could eventually become less important as Gulf countries develop alternative pipeline routes capable of moving more energy without relying on the waterway.
That could have long-term consequences for global oil markets.
More alternative routes could potentially make energy supplies less vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and reduce Iran’s leverage over one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
U.S. Increases Economic Pressure on Iran
At the same time, the Trump administration is intensifying financial pressure on Tehran.
The Treasury Department has been pursuing what it calls Operation Economic Outcast, an effort designed to target financial networks that provide Iran with access to international banking and revenue.
The department has taken actions against financial institutions and other entities it says have helped Iran maintain access to foreign currency and the international financial system.
Bessent has described the campaign in sweeping terms, arguing that sanctions and other economic restrictions can place extraordinary pressure on the Iranian government.
The administration maintains that the broader objective is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon while weakening its ability to finance activities that threaten U.S. interests and allies.
Oil Market Still Faces Major Uncertainty
Despite Bessent’s optimistic forecast, significant uncertainty remains.
OPEC+ announced Sunday that it would keep its oil production policy unchanged for October as producers continue navigating the consequences of the Iran conflict and disruptions to global supplies.
That means Americans should not assume $40 oil — or dramatically cheaper gasoline — is right around the corner.
Bessent’s forecast depends heavily on what happens after the Iran conflict and how quickly additional supplies can return to the market.
The duration of the conflict, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ decisions and global demand could all affect the eventual price.
What Americans Should Watch Next
For consumers, three developments could be especially important: whether the Iran conflict moves toward a resolution, whether oil shipments through the Middle East return to more normal levels, and whether additional global production reaches the market.
If supply expands significantly while demand remains relatively stable, oil prices could face downward pressure.
If geopolitical tensions continue or supplies remain constrained, prices could remain elevated.
Bessent is betting on the first scenario.
His prediction that oil could eventually fall into the $40-to-$50 range would represent a major reversal in energy markets — and one that could eventually be felt by millions of Americans through gasoline prices, transportation expenses and other household costs.
For families watching every dollar, that may be the most important number of all.
