Top Republican Hold Narrow Lead

Republican Sen. Susan Collins has moved narrowly ahead of Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a new poll of Maine voters, putting one of the nation’s most closely watched 2026 Senate races back in the spotlight.

The New York Times/Siena University survey released Thursday showed Collins at 49% and Jackson at 46% among likely voters, while 5% remained undecided. Collins’ three-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race remains statistically close heading into the final weeks before Election Day.

For both parties, the stakes extend far beyond Maine. The contest could play an important role in determining which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections.

Collins Leads 49% to 46% in Latest Maine Senate Poll

The survey offers encouraging news for Collins as the five-term Republican seeks a sixth term in Washington.

According to Siena Research Institute, the poll found:

• Susan Collins, Republican: 49%
• Troy Jackson, Democrat: 46%
• Undecided: 5%

Because the difference between the candidates is smaller than the survey’s margin of error, the results do not establish a clear statistical leader.

Maine Public described the contest as essentially a statistical dead heat despite Collins’ numerical advantage. The survey included 619 voters and was completed before a recently published investigative report concerning federal spending connected to Collins became part of the campaign debate.

Key Voting Groups Are Sharply Divided

The poll also showed major differences among demographic groups.

Jackson performed particularly well among women and younger voters, while Collins posted stronger numbers among men and middle-aged voters.

According to the survey results provided with the poll, Jackson led Collins by nine percentage points among women and by 18 points among voters between ages 30 and 44.

Collins held a 16-point advantage among men and a 19-point advantage among voters between ages 45 and 64.

Those subgroup findings can offer insight into the coalitions supporting each candidate, although demographic samples are smaller than the full survey and therefore generally carry larger margins of error.

Why the Maine Senate Race Matters Nationally

The Collins-Jackson contest has attracted national attention because Democrats are trying to gain Senate seats in the 2026 midterms.

Maine represents a particularly notable opportunity because Collins is a Republican representing a state that has often supported Democratic presidential candidates.

At the same time, Collins has built a political identity around her willingness to separate herself from Republican leadership on selected issues, making the race more complicated than a simple party-line contest.

That dynamic has helped turn Maine into one of the Senate races receiving significant attention from national political organizations, donors and voters.

Troy Jackson Campaigns on Medicare for All and Tax Changes

Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, is campaigning on an economic platform focused heavily on working-class voters.

His campaign website calls for Medicare for All, lower prescription drug costs and higher taxes on billionaires and large corporations. It also lists abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement among his policy priorities.

Jackson has attempted to contrast those positions with Collins’ record in Washington while also connecting her to the broader Republican agenda.

His campaign presents the election as an opportunity to shift political power toward workers and families dealing with the rising costs of housing, health care and other everyday expenses.

Collins Highlights Independent Record in Washington

Collins has long emphasized instances in which she has disagreed with Republican presidents or members of her own party.

One recent area of disagreement involves U.S. trade policy toward Canada.

Collins has criticized tariffs affecting trade between the United States and Canada, arguing that prolonged tariffs could hurt Maine families, manufacturers, farmers, municipalities and small businesses.

In August, after Canada exempted American seafood from planned retaliatory tariffs, Collins urged U.S. officials to return to negotiations and described Canada as one of America’s closest allies and largest trading partners.

That position is particularly significant in Maine, where trade with Canada and the seafood industry carry substantial economic importance.

Maine Lobster Industry Remains a Major Political Issue

The future of Maine’s lobster industry has also become part of the Senate debate.

Collins and independent Sen. Angus King have supported federal efforts designed to delay additional regulations affecting lobstermen while policymakers address protections for the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

The issue illustrates the balancing act facing Maine lawmakers: protecting one of the state’s most recognizable industries while addressing federal environmental requirements.

Fishing, seafood exports and related businesses support communities across Maine, making lobster policy both an economic and political concern.

Collins and Jackson Offer Different Policy Directions

The election gives Maine voters a choice between two candidates with substantially different policy approaches.

Jackson is campaigning on proposals including a national Medicare for All program, changes to immigration enforcement and higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations.

Collins is campaigning on her lengthy Senate record, her work on Maine-specific economic issues and her willingness to oppose Republican leaders on selected votes and policies.

Those differences are likely to remain central as both campaigns compete for undecided voters during the final weeks of the race.

Poll Shows Maine Race Could Remain Close Until Election Day

The latest survey does not indicate that either candidate has established a decisive advantage.

Siena’s official results put Collins at 49% and Jackson at 46%, while Maine Public characterized the race as a statistical dead heat because Collins’ advantage remains within the survey’s margin of error.

With 5% of likely voters still undecided in the survey, even a relatively small movement in voter preferences could affect the final result.

That uncertainty is likely to keep Maine at the center of national attention through Election Day.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Maine Senate Race

Who is leading the Maine Senate race?

The Sept. 24 New York Times/Siena University poll showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 49% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 46% among likely voters. The three-point difference falls within the survey’s margin of error.

Is Susan Collins running for reelection?

Yes. Collins is seeking a sixth term in the U.S. Senate.

Who is Troy Jackson?

Jackson is a Democrat and former president of the Maine Senate. His campaign platform includes Medicare for All, higher taxes on billionaires and large corporations, and abolishing ICE.

Why is the Maine Senate election important?

The race matters nationally because both parties are competing for control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. A change of only a few seats could alter control of the chamber.

When was the latest Maine Senate poll released?

Siena Research Institute published the New York Times/Siena likely-voter poll on September 24, 2026.

Final Weeks Could Decide the Race

Maine’s Senate campaign is entering its most important phase with neither Collins nor Jackson holding a statistically decisive advantage in the latest major poll.

Collins is relying on her long Senate record, positions on Maine-specific economic issues and reputation for occasionally breaking with Republican leaders. Jackson is emphasizing economic populism and progressive policy proposals while seeking to persuade voters that the state needs new representation in Washington.

For now, the numbers show a competitive race.

With Collins at 49%, Jackson at 46% and a portion of voters still undecided, Maine could remain one of the most closely watched Senate contests through Election Day.