Democrat Leading Republican In Key State

A newly released Fox News poll suggests Iowa’s race for the U.S. Senate could be more competitive than many Republicans expected, with Democrat Josh Turek holding a narrow lead over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson.

According to the statewide survey, Turek receives support from 50% of registered Iowa voters, while Hinson earns 46%, giving the Democrat a four-point advantage heading into the final months of the campaign.

The poll surveyed 1,003 registered voters between June 23 and June 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Motivated Voters Give Turek His Largest Advantage

Among voters who described themselves as “extremely motivated” to vote this November, Turek’s lead grows substantially.

The survey found that 56% of these highly engaged voters support the Democratic candidate, compared to 41% backing Hinson.

While one poll does not determine the outcome of an election, the numbers suggest Democrats believe they have an opportunity to compete in a state that has leaned Republican for much of the past decade.

Iowa Senate Seat Opens After Joni Ernst Retirement

The winner will replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, ending an era in Iowa politics after two terms in the U.S. Senate.

During her time in Washington, Ernst served as chair of the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee while also sitting on the Agriculture, Armed Services, and Homeland Security committees.

Should Turek win in November, he would become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Iowa since Tom Harkin won reelection in 2008.

That same election also marked the last time Iowa voted for a Democratic presidential nominee, when Barack Obama carried the state.

Democrats Believe Iowa Could Be Competitive Again

Despite Iowa’s recent Republican voting history, Democrats remain optimistic about Turek’s chances.

The Iowa lawmaker represents a legislative district that President Donald Trump has carried multiple times, and his campaign has focused on appealing to independents and moderate Republicans as well as Democratic voters.

Following his primary victory, Turek argued that many Americans feel the political system favors wealthy special interests while leaving working families behind. He encouraged Republicans, independents, and Democrats alike to support his campaign.

Political Experts Still Favor Republicans

Although the Fox News poll shows a Democratic lead, most election forecasters continue to believe Republicans have the advantage.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates the Iowa Senate race as “Lean Republican,” placing it one step away from becoming a true toss-up.

That rating reflects Iowa’s recent voting history, where Republicans have consistently performed well in statewide elections.

Ashley Hinson Campaigns on Conservative Priorities

Hinson has campaigned as a strong conservative, emphasizing her support for Iowa farmers, border security, lower taxes, and President Donald Trump’s agenda.

She has also received endorsements from both Trump and retiring Sen. Ernst.

Throughout the campaign, Hinson has criticized Turek’s policy positions, arguing that Democratic proposals could hurt Iowa’s agricultural economy and increase government spending.

Josh Turek Focuses on Health Care and Agriculture

Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist who has used a wheelchair since childhood, has centered his campaign on expanding access to health care, lowering medical costs, and supporting Iowa’s farming communities.

Agriculture remains one of Iowa’s largest economic drivers. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Iowa ranked third in the nation in total farms in 2022, trailing only Texas and Missouri.

Because of agriculture’s importance to the state’s economy, both candidates continue making support for farmers a central part of their campaigns.

Inflation Remains the Top Issue for Iowa Voters

The Fox News poll also found that inflation and the rising cost of living remain the most important issues for Iowa voters.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents identified inflation and high prices as the top factor influencing their vote.

Health care, immigration and border security, and political division were the only other issues that reached double-digit support.

The findings reinforce what many national polls have shown throughout the election cycle: Americans continue to place the economy and household expenses at the top of their concerns.

What This Means for Republicans

While Democrats are highlighting the latest poll as evidence that the race is tightening, Republicans point to Iowa’s long-running conservative voting trend and the state’s support for President Donald Trump in recent elections.

With several months remaining before Election Day, campaign spending, candidate debates, voter turnout, and the national political environment will likely determine whether Republicans hold the seat or Democrats can pull off one of the biggest Senate upsets of the 2026 election cycle.