Democrat Gains Momentum In Southern State
North Carolina’s gubernatorial race has become a focal point in this election cycle, with recent polling showing a notable lead for Democratic candidate Josh Stein over his Republican challenger, Mark Robinson. According to a High Point University/SurveyUSA poll conducted from August 19 to August 21, Stein holds a 14-point advantage over Robinson. The poll, which surveyed 1,053 registered voters, shows Stein with 48% support compared to Robinson’s 34%, while 18% of voters remain undecided.
This contest is significant not only for its current dynamics but also for its potential impact on future political landscapes in North Carolina. Should Robinson, the current lieutenant governor and a vocal advocate for conservative values, win, he would make history as the state’s first black governor. Conversely, a victory for Stein, the state’s attorney general, would mark the election of North Carolina’s first Jewish governor.
Robinson, who gained national attention in 2018 for his outspoken defense of gun rights, has since garnered an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Despite this high-profile backing, recent reports from AdImpact reveal a disparity in campaign finances. Of the nearly $78 million allocated for the governor’s race, Stein has received a significant majority, with three-quarters of the total funds going to his campaign. Additionally, Stein’s fundraising has outpaced Robinson’s, with Stein raising $13.8 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to Robinson’s $5.1 million.
Robinson has acknowledged the challenges posed by this financial gap, warning that without increased fundraising efforts, the campaign risks not only losing the gubernatorial race but potentially affecting Republican prospects in other key races, including the White House.
On the policy front, Robinson’s stance on abortion has evolved. Originally advocating for a total ban with no exceptions, he has since moderated his position, supporting North Carolina’s existing law which prohibits abortions after 12 weeks. He has framed this issue as a personal one, referencing his wife’s abortion in 1989.
Political analysts, like Michael Bitzer, suggest that Robinson’s struggles could have broader implications for Republican candidates, including Trump’s chances in North Carolina. Other recent polls, including those by the New York Times and the Carolina Journal, show Stein maintaining leads that exceed the margin of error. The RealClearPolitics average also gives Stein an 8.7% advantage.
Historically, North Carolina has leaned Democratic in gubernatorial races, with Democrats winning seven of the last eight elections. However, the state has shown a tendency to support Republican presidential candidates, with only one Democratic win in the past 50 years, that of Barack Obama in 2008. The outcome of this race will be a crucial indicator of the state’s political trajectory in the coming years.
