Kamala Catches Up To Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris has notably narrowed former President Donald Trump’s lead in key battleground states crucial for the upcoming November election. Recent data from the Cook Political Report’s Swing State Project, gathered by BSG and GS Strategy Group and published on Wednesday, indicates that Harris is either neck-and-neck with Trump or surpassing him in most of the critical states, with the exception of Nevada. In a direct comparison, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump by 1 point, holding 48% to his 47%.
According to Amy Walter’s analysis, Harris’s improved standing can be attributed to her ability to consolidate the Democratic base and garner additional support from independent voters.
Previously, Trump was leading President Joe Biden by 3 points and was either ahead or tied with him across all major battleground states in the last Swing State Project survey from May. In Nevada, Trump currently leads Harris by 3 percentage points, a notable drop from his previous 9-point advantage over Biden.
In the latest figures, Harris leads Trump by 2 points in Arizona (48% to 46%), by 3 points in Michigan (49% to 46%), and by 3 points in Wisconsin (49% to 46%). In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Harris holds a slim lead of 1 point in both states, while in Georgia, the candidates are tied at 48%.
The surge in Harris’s popularity has been fueled by Democratic enthusiasm following President Biden’s suspension of his presidential campaign. While Biden had an 82% approval rate among his 2020 supporters in May, this figure has risen to 91% for Harris, with the remainder either undecided or leaning toward Trump or a third-party candidate.
Despite these gains, Trump maintains a clear edge on key policy issues such as border security and immigration, where he leads Harris by 14 points. During a recent interview with Elon Musk on X, Trump criticized Harris’s track record on the migrant crisis, questioning her effectiveness in addressing the issue over the past three and a half years.
Furthermore, Trump has a 6-point lead over Harris on managing inflation and the cost of living, and a 4-point lead on addressing crime and violence.
With the election just 82 days away, Harris faces the challenge of redefining her public image, which has been less favorable due to her tenure as Biden’s vice president. The upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be a pivotal moment for Harris to strengthen her position as delegates and party leaders rally behind her.
The Swing State Project survey also reveals some encouraging signs for Harris, with 56% of battleground voters viewing her as an opportunity to move beyond the Trump/Biden era and 59% seeing her as a symbol of a new generation of leadership.
