GOP Support Declining In Key State

In Wisconsin, the WOW counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—have long stood as Republican strongholds, shaping the state’s political landscape. Yet, recent trends suggest these suburban counties might be tilting leftward, which could impact Republican prospects in future elections.

Waukesha, the state’s third-largest county with a population nearing 400,000, is crucial for Republican victories in statewide races. Its significance is underscored by Wisconsin’s key role in national elections, making Waukesha’s traditionally Republican status vital for GOP success. As Mike Wagner, a political communication professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted, “The focus on Waukesha County is not without reason; its voter turnout is crucial for Republicans.”

Historically, the WOW counties have been bastions of Republican support. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points but struggled in these counties, receiving less than 40% of the vote in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—among the lowest in areas he lost.

By 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney secured 64.63% of the vote in Ozaukee County. This county, once the most Republican of the three, has since shown signs of shifting away from its strong conservative roots. Wagner observed that Ozaukee, once the state’s most Republican county in the 1990s, has seen its influence wane.

In the 2014 gubernatorial race, Scott Walker enjoyed a 40-point margin in Ozaukee County, but by 2022, Republican victories in the county had slimmed to a 10-11 point margin. From 1996 to 2020, no Democratic candidate won a single municipality in these counties, but President Joe Biden narrowly won Cedarburg in 2020, signaling a shift.

Washington County, on the other hand, has emerged as the most Republican of the three, with Trump securing a 40-point victory there in 2020. However, Ozaukee County saw a significant decrease in Republican margins compared to Romney’s 30-point win in 2012.

As Trump’s right-wing populism resonates more with rural voters than traditional Republicans, this shift away from conventional GOP strongholds is notable. The departure of prominent conservatives like Paul Ryan, who once represented parts of Waukesha County, has also influenced this dynamic.

Moreover, abortion and reproductive rights have become pivotal issues in recent elections. Wagner pointed out that abortion debates, particularly following the overturn of Roe v. Wade, have influenced voting patterns. In the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s campaign targeted not only Dane and Milwaukee counties but also the WOW counties. Her narrow win in Ozaukee County, by just five points, contrasts sharply with Mitt Romney’s 30-point victory there in 2012.

Additionally, in the recent 2024 primaries, Wisconsin voters rejected two GOP-backed ballot measures aimed at curbing the governor’s spending power. In the WOW counties, support for these measures was surprisingly low—50% in Ozaukee and 57% in Waukesha—indicating a potential shift in voter priorities.

These changes in voting behavior, coupled with record turnout in the 2024 primaries, suggest that while the WOW counties remain important, their political dynamics are evolving. For Republicans, maintaining strong support in these areas will be crucial for future electoral success.