Republicans To Lose House Control?
The growing enthusiasm and momentum surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign may not be sufficient to sway competitive down-ballot races in favor of the Democrats, as recent polls suggest that the House of Representatives is likely to remain under Republican control.
According to the latest ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Republicans are still in a “narrowly ahead” position, though no clear winner has yet emerged. The analysis highlighted two key races that are increasingly leaning toward the GOP as Republican lawmakers aim to solidify their slim House majority.
One notable shift is in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, where the race for Rep. Yadira Caraveo’s seat has transitioned from “leans Democratic” to a “toss-up.” This change underscores recent Democratic concerns that President Joe Biden’s unpopularity could be dragging down candidates in closely contested races. The district supported Biden by approximately 4.5 points in 2020, which mirrors his national margin. However, it had favored Trump by a few points in 2016 and showed stronger Democratic leanings in earlier elections.
In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, the race moved from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican” after Rep. Lauren Boebert’s departure. Democrat Adam Frisch will challenge Republican Jeff Hurd in the general election. With Boebert, the 3rd District was considered a toss-up due to Frisch’s narrow defeat in 2022 and his substantial fundraising advantage. However, with Boebert running in the 4th District, pundits believe Hurd, a more moderate Republican, will face less resistance compared to Boebert’s more contentious profile.
Crystal Ball also highlighted that control of the House may hinge on a few narrow-margin districts won by Biden in 2020 that could flip in favor of former President Donald Trump. The races for Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME), Don Davis (D-NC), Emilia Sykes (D-OH), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Susan Wild (D-PA), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) are all considered toss-ups.
Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez are among those who have not yet endorsed Harris for president. All three, along with Caraveo and Davis, recently voted to censure Harris for her handling of border issues. This resolution is part of a broader Republican strategy to tie Biden’s border policies to Harris and emphasize the challenges posed by illegal immigration, a key voter concern heading into the 2024 election.
Despite these shifts, the Republicans’ hold on the House is not guaranteed. They are defending 18 districts that Biden won in 2020, compared to just eight districts for the Democrats. Currently, the House balance stands at 221-214, meaning Democrats need to win at least four additional seats to take control.
Additionally, Crystal Ball noted a shift in Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s (R-IA) race in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, moving from “likely” to “leans Republican.” She will face Democrat Christina Bohannan, who narrowly lost in 2022. The district, which voted for Trump by about 3 points in both 2016 and 2020, might see increased competition due to recent developments like Iowa’s new six-week abortion ban.
While Harris’s campaign has generated substantial donations and increased voter registration, some Republicans view this as a temporary surge. Concerns about immigration and the economy continue to weigh heavily on voters, potentially impacting the overall presidential race. Despite Harris’s strong campaign entry, polls indicate that Trump still holds a slight edge, with varying results on how the presidential race will ultimately unfold.
