Top Republican In Re-Election Danger

In a highly competitive Texas Senate race, recent polling indicates a neck-and-neck battle between Senator Ted Cruz (R) and Congressman Colin Allred (D). A survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill reveals Cruz leading Allred by a narrow margin of just one percentage point, with 48% support compared to Allred’s 47%, leaving 5% of voters undecided. This shift marks a tightening of the race compared to September, when Cruz held a 4-point lead.

Both candidates are closely matched in terms of favorability, with Cruz registering a net rating of -1 and Allred slightly ahead at +2. Notably, Allred’s name recognition has seen a significant uptick, with only 10% of voters now unfamiliar with him, down from 18% the previous month. Cruz, however, retains a strong advantage in this area, as nearly all voters recognize his name.

A key factor contributing to Allred’s competitiveness is his slight edge among independent voters, who favor him 47% to 42%. Interestingly, former President Donald Trump continues to hold a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among these voters, expanding his margin from 5 points to 7 since the last poll.

Texas has emerged as a focal point for Democrats seeking to challenge the Republican stronghold in the Senate, even as they face a map favoring GOP candidates in many other states. The race appears more competitive now than earlier this year, with Cruz leading Allred by an average of approximately 3.5 points, according to polling data from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ.

With Harris scheduled to campaign alongside Allred, the stakes are high in this pivotal race. The Emerson poll was conducted from October 18 to 21, surveying 815 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. As the election approaches, both candidates will be intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters and solidify their bases.