Here’s what conservatives need to know.
The battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas is becoming one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections, with a new poll showing Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow advantage over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The contest carries national significance because Paxton has received the endorsement of President Donald Trump, while Republicans are fighting to protect their position in a state that has reliably elected GOP candidates to statewide office for decades.
According to a new AARP poll of likely Texas voters, Talarico receives 48% support compared with 44% for Paxton. Another 8% remain undecided.
But a closer look at the numbers reveals a dramatically different picture among older Texans — and that could become one of the most important factors in the race.
Paxton Holds Big Lead With Voters 50 And Older
Among Texas voters age 50 and older, Paxton leads Talarico by 13 percentage points, 53% to 40%.
That advantage matters because older Americans historically represent a highly engaged segment of the electorate.
AARP found that 84% of Texas voters age 50 and older describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote. Among voters younger than 50, that number falls to 70%.
Older voters also represented a substantial portion of participation in the Texas primaries earlier this year. Texans 50 and older accounted for nearly 55% of Democratic primary voters and 78% of Republican primary voters.
Those numbers suggest that while Talarico currently holds the advantage among likely voters in the AARP survey, Paxton has considerable support among an age group that has demonstrated a strong willingness to actually cast ballots.
Social Security And Rising Costs Take Center Stage
The poll also provides insight into what is motivating Texans over 50.
Social Security ranked as one of their biggest concerns, with 78% saying the program would be an important factor when deciding how to vote.
Health care costs followed closely behind at 77%, while 76% pointed to the rising price of everyday necessities.
Those findings could make economic issues particularly important during the closing weeks of the campaign.
Older Americans are often directly affected by changes in grocery prices, prescription drug expenses, utility bills, property taxes and retirement income. For Texans living on fixed or partially fixed incomes, even relatively small increases in household expenses can have a noticeable impact.
AARP also found overwhelming support for policies aimed at keeping housing affordable. Ninety-six percent of likely voters surveyed said it was important for elected officials to keep property taxes low and make homeownership affordable as people age.
That puts pocketbook issues at the center of a Senate race already attracting national attention.
Texas Senate Race Is Getting More Competitive
The AARP survey is not the only recent polling showing a close contest between Talarico and Paxton.
Recent polls have produced different results, but several have indicated that the Democratic candidate is competitive with the Republican attorney general.
That represents a notable development in Texas politics.
Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen’s victory in 1988. Republicans have dominated statewide races for decades, making any competitive Senate contest in Texas particularly significant.
The Cook Political Report has responded to the changing political environment by moving the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
The nonpartisan election analysis organization said the contest had become competitive enough that its previous Republican advantage rating was no longer appropriate.
That doesn’t mean either candidate is assured of victory. Polling can change, different surveys use different methodologies, and the AARP poll’s four-point statewide difference is close to its reported margin of error.
It does, however, indicate that both campaigns have substantial work ahead of them.
Paxton Emerges From Heated Republican Battle
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff earlier this year.
The result brought an end to Cornyn’s lengthy Senate career and placed Paxton at the center of the Republican effort to keep the seat.
Talarico, meanwhile, has attempted to appeal to Texans outside the Democratic Party’s traditional base.
During a recent CNN interview, the Democrat spoke positively about Cornyn’s years of service and said he hoped to continue that tradition if elected.
His comments appeared aimed at presenting himself as a candidate willing to appeal to voters who previously supported Republicans.
Whether that approach will translate into enough crossover support remains one of the major questions surrounding the race.
Paxton Draws Sharp Contrast With Talarico
Paxton has taken a much different approach, emphasizing ideological differences between himself and his Democratic opponent.
During an appearance at the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention, Paxton criticized Talarico over energy policy, religion and transgender issues.
Energy could prove especially significant in Texas, where the oil and natural gas industries remain major parts of the state’s economy.
Paxton has sought to portray himself as a defender of the state’s traditional energy sector while arguing that Democratic policies could threaten Texas oil and gas production.
Talarico has also faced questions about transgender athletes.
In a recent Fox News interview, he said he would not support transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, distancing himself from a position Paxton has attempted to associate with his campaign.
The exchange demonstrates how both candidates are working to define each other before undecided voters make their decisions.
Older Voters Could Hold The Key
One of the most striking findings from the AARP poll is the difference between the statewide electorate and Texans over 50.
Talarico leads the overall survey by four points.
Paxton leads among voters 50 and older by 13.
That creates an unusual dynamic heading toward Election Day.
Talarico’s campaign will need to maintain its strength among younger voters, independents and other supportive groups while competing for enough older voters to remain competitive.
Paxton, meanwhile, has a sizable advantage with older Texans but faces the challenge of improving his overall standing among the broader electorate.
Independent voters could also receive considerable attention from both campaigns as Election Day approaches.
Why The Texas Race Matters Nationally
Texas has long been considered a cornerstone of Republican strength in national elections. Its large population, growing economy and substantial congressional delegation make political developments in the state important far beyond its borders.
The Senate contest therefore carries consequences beyond Paxton and Talarico.
Republicans are attempting to protect a seat they have controlled for decades, while Democrats see an opportunity to compete in territory that has historically been difficult for their party.
For Trump, the contest also puts attention on a Republican candidate carrying his endorsement.
But the latest polling contains both encouraging and concerning numbers for Republicans.
Talarico leads statewide in the AARP survey, while Paxton maintains a substantial advantage with the highly motivated 50-plus electorate.
With Social Security, health care expenses, property taxes and the cost of everyday necessities ranking high among older Texans’ concerns, both candidates will have opportunities to make their case directly to voters focused on their financial security.
The AARP survey questioned 895 likely Texas voters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1 and has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
For now, the numbers show a competitive Texas Senate race — and one where the voting strength of Texans age 50 and older could play an especially important role before the final ballots are counted.
