Kamala To Win Pennsylvania?

Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself in a tight contest with former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to recent polls. This battleground state, crucial for both candidates, is set to host Harris’s first major public event since she was announced as the Democratic presidential nominee for 2024. Her rally in Philadelphia is anticipated to play a significant role in her campaign strategy.

Pennsylvania holds substantial importance for Harris. While she could theoretically win the presidency without the state’s 19 Electoral College votes, securing Pennsylvania would significantly simplify her path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Historically, the state has swung between parties; it supported Trump in 2016 but shifted to Biden in 2020.

Harris’s ascent to the Democratic nomination followed President Biden’s withdrawal from the race last month. This shift was driven by Democratic concerns about Biden’s declining poll numbers, particularly in key states like Pennsylvania, which became evident after his debate performance against Trump in June. These concerns included doubts about Biden’s age and his capacity to secure a victory in November.

Since becoming the Democratic front-runner, Harris has seen a surge in both enthusiasm and fundraising. This momentum has shifted polling data in her favor, providing the party with renewed confidence. A recent GQR poll of Pennsylvania voters shows Harris leading Trump by 50% to 46%, with 2% leaning towards other candidates and another 2% undecided. This survey, conducted between July 26 and July 30, 2024, had a margin of error of ±4.38 percentage points.

As Harris prepares for her Philadelphia rally, speculation about her vice presidential pick continues. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is considered a strong contender due to his past electoral successes. Polls, such as those from FiveThirtyEight, indicate a near tie between Harris and Trump, with Harris averaging 45.3% support and Trump 44.4%. Other polls, including those from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, also show a tight race, with Harris and Trump frequently trading leads within the margin of error.

In addition to Pennsylvania, the campaign is focusing on other key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania by 1.2 points in 2020, and Trump’s win in 2016 was by an even slimmer margin. These competitive states will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.