Do You Support Trump’s VP Pick JD Vance?

Former President Trump and President Biden are running neck and neck in hypothetical match-ups in two key states, according to the latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College.

In the polling released Monday, Trump leads Biden by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent) among likely voters in Pennsylvania, while Biden leads Trump by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent) among likely voters in Virginia. These results fall within the margins of error for both polls.

The polls were conducted after Biden’s shaky debate performance last month, which sparked public debate over his position as the Democratic Party’s candidate. However, the polling occurred before the attempted assassination of Trump this past Saturday, an event that has shaken the nation and could influence future poll results in unpredictable ways.

Biden’s performance in the July 2024 poll in Pennsylvania is nearly identical to the previous poll conducted from late April to early May. In that earlier poll, Trump led Biden by 3 points among registered voters, with 47 percent to Biden’s 44 percent.

Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2020, and the state remains a crucial battleground for his reelection efforts this year.

Pollsters pointed out that Biden’s narrow lead in Virginia could be more concerning for his reelection team since he won Virginia by 10 points in 2020.

The polls also assessed voter sentiment regarding Vice President Harris amid some calls within the party for her to replace Biden as the nominee.

Harris performs slightly better than Biden in both states, although the differences remain within the margins of error. In Pennsylvania, Harris narrows Trump’s lead to just 1 point, with 47 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent among likely voters. In Virginia, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, with 49 percent to 44 percent.

Despite some calls from within the Democratic Party for Biden to step aside, the president and his team have reaffirmed his commitment to staying in the race. Many Democrats have renewed their support for Biden and criticized party members who have attacked the candidate.

The Pennsylvania poll of 872 voters was conducted July 9-11 and has a margin of sampling error of 3.8 percentage points. The Virginia poll of 661 voters was conducted July 9-12 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.