McConnell And Senate GOP Goes Crawling Back To Trump

Senate Republicans were sheepish about Trump in the beginning but now they know they desperately need him.

Senate Republicans are now closely watching former President Trump as the potential key to maintaining their narrow majority in the House come November, while Democrats remain optimistic about reclaiming control despite recent turbulence within the House GOP.

For months, Republican lawmakers have expressed confidence about their chances of retaking the Senate in 2024. However, the situation in the House is far less certain. Many members see the House race as a true toss-up, heavily influenced by Trump’s performance.

Senator Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a former House member, emphasized the impact of Trump on the election’s outcome. “If Donald Trump wins, it’s hard for me to imagine Republicans losing the House,” Cramer said. “If Donald Trump doesn’t win, I think we could very well win the Senate and lose the House.”

With the election just six months away, the battle for the House remains extremely close. Regardless of which party wins, a slim majority is expected in the 119th Congress.

The Republicans’ slim two-seat margin has been strained by early retirements and internal dissatisfaction, contributing to a volatile situation in the House. This has turned the contest into a closely contested race.

Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who served seven terms in the House, echoed this sentiment, calling the House race a “true 50/50 kind of election.” According to the Cook Political Report, 210 seats lean Republican, 203 lean Democrat, and 22 seats are toss-ups, equally divided between the two parties.

Redistricting has provided Republicans with a significant advantage, especially in North Carolina, where the delegation is expected to shift from a 7-7 split to at least 10 GOP-controlled seats. Conversely, Democrats have made only modest gains in New York, which could play a critical role in determining the House’s future.

Both parties remain cautiously optimistic about their prospects. Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) highlighted Trump’s influence, suggesting that strong performance by Trump could benefit House Republicans. “If he performs well in these districts, then I think the House members will as well,” Tillis said.

Despite setbacks from redistricting, Senate Democrats remain hopeful, buoyed by what they view as poor performance by House Republicans over the past year. The ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and the subsequent chaos have added to the Democrats’ optimism.

Current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has faced criticism from some GOP members, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), particularly over his cooperation with Democrats on key spending bills and aid to Ukraine.

Democrats are also encouraged by their fundraising edge and their belief that Trump’s presence has previously hurt Republican candidates, as seen in 2022.

Senator Peter Welch (D-Vt.) reflected on the GOP’s internal strife, stating, “If performance is relevant to voter decisions, we’re in pretty good shape.” However, he acknowledged the challenges posed by gerrymandering and polarized politics.

Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), former head of the House Democratic campaign arm, expressed high confidence, recalling the success of the 2018 midterms when Democrats gained 41 seats. “And in ‘18, we did pretty well,” he noted.

As both parties prepare for the final stretch, the outcome of the House remains uncertain, hinging on key factors such as redistricting, fundraising, and Trump’s influence on the election.