Key Race Now A Toss Up
A closely watched U.S. Senate race is becoming more competitive for Republicans as the 2026 midterm elections enter their final stretch.
The Cook Political Report has moved New Hampshire’s open Senate contest from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, putting new national attention on the race between Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.
The change is notable because Democrats currently hold the seat through retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. With no incumbent seeking reelection, both parties are fighting for an opportunity to shape the balance of power in Washington.
New Hampshire Senate Race Tightens
Sununu and Pappas emerged from New Hampshire’s September primaries as the Republican and Democratic nominees.
Recent polling suggests the general election could be close.
An August University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Sununu with 45% support compared with 43% for Pappas in a hypothetical general-election matchup. The Survey Center described the candidates as statistically tied.
That polling, combined with Republican spending and Sununu’s established political name, has helped make New Hampshire one of the Senate contests receiving increased national attention.
Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor pointed to the amount of money national Republican groups have committed to the race as a sign that Democrats have reason to take the contest seriously.
Cook’s new rating does not mean either candidate is projected to win. A Toss Up classification indicates that the organization considers the contest highly competitive, with neither party holding a clear advantage.
John Sununu Makes Political Comeback
For Sununu, the campaign marks a return to national politics after nearly two decades away from the Senate.
The Republican previously represented New Hampshire in the U.S. House before winning election to the Senate in 2002. He served one Senate term before losing his 2008 reelection campaign to Shaheen.
Sununu is also part of one of New Hampshire’s best-known political families.
His brother, Chris Sununu, served four terms as governor of New Hampshire. Their father, John H. Sununu, served as governor from 1983 until 1989 and later became White House chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush.
The former senator’s return gives Republicans a candidate who has previously won statewide office in New Hampshire.
Chris Pappas Looks to Keep Seat With Democrats
Pappas is seeking to make the jump from the House of Representatives to the Senate.
The Democrat has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019 and secured his party’s Senate nomination after defeating primary challenger Karishma Manzur.
Pappas now faces the challenge of defending a Senate seat that Democrats have controlled since Shaheen defeated Sununu in 2008.
Unlike races featuring sitting senators, neither candidate enters the general election as the incumbent. That gives New Hampshire voters a choice between two candidates who have already served in Congress but are seeking a new term in the Senate.
Why New Hampshire Matters in 2026
Every competitive Senate contest matters because control of the chamber affects legislation, presidential nominations, federal judges and the broader agenda in Washington.
New Hampshire has also demonstrated an ability to support candidates from both parties.
Democrats have enjoyed considerable success in federal elections in the state, while Republicans have remained competitive in statewide races, particularly contests for governor.
That political history is one reason the Sununu-Pappas contest is attracting attention beyond New Hampshire.
Republicans are looking at New Hampshire as a potential opportunity to gain a Democratic-held seat, while Democrats are seeking to keep Shaheen’s seat in their column.
Michigan is another open Democratic-held Senate seat drawing substantial attention, with former Rep. Mike Rogers representing Republicans in that contest.
Polling Adds to National Attention
The August UNH numbers offer only a snapshot of voter opinion rather than a prediction of the November result.
Polling can change as voters learn more about the nominees, political advertising increases and the campaigns sharpen their messages.
Still, a competitive survey combined with Cook’s decision to change its rating illustrates how perceptions of the New Hampshire contest have changed.
The race had previously been classified as Lean Democrat, meaning Democrats were considered to have an advantage even though the seat remained competitive.
Moving the contest into the Toss Up category removes that advantage from Cook’s current classification.
All Eyes Turn to November
With the primaries completed, Sununu and Pappas can now focus entirely on the general election.
Voters will have an opportunity to compare the candidates on issues including the economy, taxes, government spending, immigration, healthcare, energy and foreign policy as Election Day approaches.
Sununu is attempting to return to a Senate seat he left nearly 18 years ago, while Pappas is trying to extend Democratic control of a seat Shaheen has held since 2009.
The latest polling does not determine what will happen in November, but it helps explain why the contest is receiving increasing national attention.
For now, Cook Political Report’s move from Lean Democrat to Toss Up places New Hampshire firmly among the Senate races worth watching as voters prepare to make their decision in the 2026 midterm elections.
