Here’s what happened.
The race to become President Donald Trump’s eventual successor is already beginning to take shape, and a surprising new poll from one of America’s most important Republican primary states suggests the battle may be far more competitive than many political observers expected.
While Vice President JD Vance remains the early favorite to lead the GOP into the 2028 presidential election, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is rapidly gaining momentum, narrowing what was once considered an overwhelming advantage.
New Hampshire Poll Reveals Major Shift
A newly released University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll shows Vance leading with 36% support among likely Republican primary voters. Rubio now stands at 26%, a significant improvement that has caught the attention of Republican strategists across the country.
The numbers represent a dramatic change from the university’s February survey. Just a few months ago, Vance dominated the field with 53% support, while Rubio attracted only 7%.
Although Vance still holds the top spot, Rubio’s rapid climb suggests Republican voters are taking a fresh look at who could eventually carry President Trump’s America First agenda into the future.
Why Rubio Is Gaining Support
Rubio’s improving numbers come as his national profile continues to rise inside the Trump administration.
As secretary of state, Rubio has taken on several high-profile foreign policy responsibilities, including overseeing U.S. efforts involving Venezuela and helping manage America’s response to the conflict with Iran. Those assignments have kept him in the national spotlight and increased his visibility among Republican voters.
Political analysts say that greater exposure appears to be translating into stronger support in early presidential polling.
Rubio is also no stranger to presidential politics. The former Florida senator was one of the Republican candidates who challenged Trump during the crowded 2016 presidential primary before ultimately falling short.
Earlier this year, Rubio also finished a strong second behind Vance in the closely watched Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) presidential straw poll, reinforcing his status as one of the GOP’s rising leaders.
Vance Still Holds The Advantage
Despite Rubio’s surge, Vance remains the clear front-runner in the early stages of the 2028 conversation.
Many Republicans continue to view the vice president as the natural heir to Trump’s political movement. Since taking office, Vance has remained one of the administration’s strongest defenders of the America First agenda and continues to enjoy broad support from conservative voters.
Reports also indicate that Vance has quietly assembled a team of experienced political advisers who could quickly launch a presidential campaign if he decides to run.
For now, most political observers believe he remains the candidate to beat.
The Rest Of The GOP Field Trails Behind
The latest New Hampshire survey shows a sizable gap between the top two contenders and the rest of the potential Republican field.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky received 8% support, tying with former U.S. Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis followed with 6%, while every other potential Republican candidate tested at 4% or less.
Veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist David Carney said the results reflect what many insiders already believe.
According to Carney, the Republican conversation currently centers almost entirely on Vance and Rubio, making the latest polling results unsurprising.
Trump’s Praise Has Elevated Rubio
President Trump has repeatedly praised Rubio during his second administration, helping fuel speculation about the secretary of state’s political future.
Earlier this year, Trump predicted that Rubio could eventually be remembered as one of the greatest secretaries of state in American history.
The president has also spoken favorably about the possibility of a future Vance-Rubio ticket, calling the combination “unstoppable,” although he has never publicly indicated who should lead such a ticket.
Last year, Trump also described Vance as the person “most likely” to carry the Republican banner after his presidency, while noting that serving as vice president naturally places him in that position.
Those comments have only intensified interest in the developing relationship between the two Republican leaders.
Rubio And Vance Reject Talk Of A Rivalry
Although some political observers have suggested that Rubio and Vance are on a collision course for the 2028 Republican nomination, both men have consistently rejected that idea.
Rubio has publicly stated that he would support Vance if the vice president launches a presidential campaign.
Vance has also dismissed media speculation about tensions inside the administration, describing Rubio as one of his closest friends and insisting that reports of a rivalry have been exaggerated.
Despite those public statements, Republican insiders acknowledge that supporters of both men are already quietly preparing for the possibility of a competitive primary battle.
Several GOP donors have reportedly begun exploring ways to further raise Rubio’s national profile ahead of 2028, although some people within Trump’s political circle believe those efforts risk creating unnecessary division.
Trump Could Hold The Deciding Vote
Even with years remaining before Republican voters begin casting ballots, one fact is already clear: President Trump is expected to remain the single most influential figure in the Republican Party.
Whoever ultimately earns Trump’s endorsement would likely receive an enormous boost in fundraising, media attention, and grassroots support.
For that reason, many Republican strategists believe Trump’s eventual decision could reshape the entire race overnight.
The Bottom Line
JD Vance remains the early favorite to become the Republican nominee in 2028, but Marco Rubio’s rapid rise in early polling shows the contest is far from settled.
The latest New Hampshire numbers suggest Republican voters are paying close attention to both men as they evaluate who is best positioned to continue Trump’s America First agenda after his presidency.
With the 2026 midterm elections still ahead and the presidential campaign not expected to officially begin for quite some time, the Republican field has plenty of room to change. But if Rubio continues gaining ground while Vance works to maintain his lead, the battle to replace President Trump could become one of the most closely watched Republican primary races in recent history.
