Democrats Show Trepidation On Top Democrat
As the 2028 presidential election slowly begins to take shape, a new Pennsylvania poll shows voters are sharply divided on whether Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is ready for national leadership.
The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University among registered voters across the commonwealth, highlights growing questions about Shapiro’s presidential viability — even as he maintains relatively stable approval ratings as governor.
For political observers watching the Democratic bench ahead of 2028, the numbers offer both opportunity and warning signs.
Pennsylvania Voters Divided on Shapiro for President
According to the poll:
- 40% of voters say Shapiro would make a good president
- 43% say he would not
- 16% remain undecided
That split suggests hesitation — particularly in a battleground state that often determines control of the White House.
For a potential presidential candidate, underwater numbers at home can be difficult to overcome.
Independents Show Skepticism in Key Swing State
The most revealing data may come from independent voters.
Among independents:
- 44% said Shapiro would not make a good president
- 32% said he would
In a state like Pennsylvania — critical in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections — independent voters routinely decide outcomes. Weak enthusiasm from this bloc could complicate any future national campaign.
Partisan divisions were more predictable:
- 69% of Democrats support him for president
- Only 14% of Republicans agree
This mirrors the broader national political climate, where party loyalty remains strong but cross-party appeal is limited.
Job Approval as Governor Remains Majority — But Trends Matter
While voters appear cautious about a presidential bid, Shapiro still holds a majority approval rating in Pennsylvania.
The poll shows:
- 56% approve of his job performance as governor
- 29% disapprove
However, his approval rating has slipped four points since October. Though still “solid,” as polling analyst Tim Malloy described it, the downward movement may concern Democratic strategists.
In presidential politics, trajectory often matters more than static numbers.
2028 Presidential Race Speculation Intensifies
Though Governor Shapiro has not formally announced presidential ambitions, speculation has followed him for years.
He was previously mentioned as a possible running mate during the 2024 election cycle and has since built a sizable campaign fund reportedly totaling around $30 million.
His recent reelection campaign messaging has focused heavily on:
- Economic development
- Infrastructure investment
- Opposition to federal overreach
- Job creation in Pennsylvania
These themes closely align with issues likely to dominate the 2028 presidential election — particularly as national debates continue over federal spending, states’ rights, border security, and economic growth under President Trump’s administration.
Political analysts widely expect a competitive Democratic primary field in 2028. Financial resources and early positioning could prove decisive.
Republican Challenger Already Drawing Contrast
Pennsylvania State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a Republican and likely general election opponent, has already begun sharpening contrasts.
In a recent campaign ad, Garrity accused Shapiro of focusing more on national fundraising — including events in traditionally liberal states — rather than addressing Pennsylvania’s pressing concerns.
While campaign messaging is expected during election cycles, it signals that Republicans see vulnerability if voters believe national ambitions are distracting from state leadership responsibilities.
Hypothetical Matchup: Early Edge for Shapiro
The poll also tested a potential head-to-head matchup between Shapiro and Garrity.
Results showed:
- 55% support for Shapiro
- 37% support for Garrity
Still, early hypothetical matchups often shift dramatically once campaigns formally begin and outside spending intensifies.
What This Means for 2028
Pennsylvania remains one of the most important battleground states in presidential politics. Any candidate with White House ambitions must maintain strong home-state approval — particularly among independents and older voters who consistently turn out in high numbers.
For now, the message from Pennsylvania voters is clear:
Josh Shapiro’s performance as governor is viewed favorably by many — but confidence in him as a future president remains uncertain.
With nearly two years before the 2028 campaign season fully ignites, the political landscape could change significantly.
But early warning signs are often difficult to ignore.
Poll Details
The Quinnipiac University survey was conducted February 19–23 among 836 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is ±4.7 percentage points.
