In Depth Look At Close Texas Race

A new Emerson College poll indicates that both the Republican and Democratic Texas Senate primary races remain highly competitive, with no clear runaway favorite just days before voters make their final decisions.

With early voting underway and national attention growing, the outcome could have long-term implications for control of the U.S. Senate.

Republican Primary: Paxton and Cornyn in Close Contest

Among likely Republican primary voters, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 40 percent support. Senator John Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term in Washington, follows closely at 36 percent. Congressman Wesley Hunt draws 17 percent.

Because these numbers fall within the survey’s margin of error, the race remains statistically tight.

Early voting trends show a split electorate:

• Cornyn leads early voters 38% to 34%.
• Paxton leads Election Day voters 44% to 32%.

Political analysts note that Hunt’s presence in the race may prevent any candidate from reaching the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a May 26 runoff election.

President Donald Trump has not endorsed a candidate in this primary. In a recent comment, he stated he likes “all three,” leaving the decision squarely in the hands of Texas voters.

Democratic Primary: Talarico Holds Narrow Edge

On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico holds 52 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters. Rep. Jasmine Crockett follows at 47 percent.

However, the race is also within the poll’s margin of error.

Early voting appears to favor Talarico:

• 58% of early Democratic voters support him.
• 41% support Crockett.

Among those planning to vote on Election Day, Crockett holds an advantage.

Talarico, age 36, has built momentum in recent months, while Crockett is seeking to move from the U.S. House to the Senate after just over three years in office.

Why This Texas Senate Race Matters

Texas remains a reliably Republican state in federal elections. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.

Because of that history, many political observers believe the Republican primary winner will enter the general election with structural advantages.

Still, party leaders have emphasized that turnout and unity will be critical heading into November.

Polling Details

Emerson College surveyed:

• 850 likely Democratic primary voters (or those who already voted)
• 547 likely Republican primary voters (or those who already voted)

The margin of error is:

• ±3.3% for Democrats
• ±4.1% for Republicans

With just days remaining before the Texas primary, both parties face competitive contests that could shape the state’s political direction — and potentially influence the balance of power in Washington.