Democrat Set To Win Key Election?
Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) may be ahead in the latest polls, but Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears still has a powerful shot at victory—especially with half of Virginia’s independents still on the fence.
According to a new poll from the Wilder School at Virginia Commonwealth University, Spanberger is leading 49% to 37% among registered voters. That’s a 12-point advantage—but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Independents Could Flip the Race
Despite the Democrat’s lead, nearly 50% of independents across all statewide contests say they’re still undecided. And in a swing state like Virginia, that’s the battleground where elections are truly won.
This same trend is playing out in the down-ballot races:
- In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads conservative talk radio host John Reid 46% to 36%.
- In the attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones holds a 47% to 38% edge over Republican incumbent Jason Miyares.
But again—independents haven’t chosen sides.
Conflicting Polls Show a Race in Flux
While mainstream media pushes the narrative of a Democrat lead, not all data agree. A Roanoke College poll in May gave Spanberger a huge 17-point lead. But a separate survey by the pro-business group Virginia FREE found a much narrower margin—just 4 points.
That dramatic difference reveals just how unpredictable this race truly is.
Conservative Momentum Is Building
Earle-Sears, a proud conservative and strong ally of President Donald J. Trump, has campaigned on parental rights, law enforcement support, and economic growth. She’s also leaning on her record under Governor Glenn Youngkin, who remains one of the most popular governors in America.
Youngkin’s approval sits at 49%, just slightly down from 51% in December. His support for conservative values continues to resonate with voters, especially as national Democrats double down on their radical agenda.
The Stakes Have Never Been Higher
With President Trump back in the White House, and the nation watching key swing states like Virginia, this race isn’t just about a governor’s mansion—it’s about the future of American values in the South.
The poll surveyed 809 Virginia adults between June 19 and July 3 and has a margin of error of ±4.16%.
🔥 BOTTOM LINE
Don’t be fooled by the headlines. Spanberger’s lead could evaporate fast once independent voters engage and conservatives show up in force. This is a critical moment for Virginia Republicans—and for the future of our nation under President Trump’s leadership.
