Democrat Takes The Lead
Michigan Democrats are heading into a chaotic and uncertain U.S. Senate primary, according to a new poll that shows no candidate with anything close to a commanding lead — and a large share of voters still undecided.
A new survey from Emerson College Polling conducted with Nexstar Media finds Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow narrowly leading the field with just 22 percent support. Despite being in first place, McMorrow has failed to consolidate backing from most Democratic voters.
U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens follows closely at 17 percent, while progressive activist Abdul El-Sayed sits at 16 percent. Another 7 percent of respondents said they prefer someone else, highlighting fragmentation within the party.
Perhaps most telling, 38 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, an unusually high figure that underscores voter uncertainty and dissatisfaction with the available choices. The contest has been rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, reflecting how fluid the race remains.
Polling analysts say the Democratic field is effectively locked in a three-way standoff. Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball described the contest as extremely close, with no clear breakout candidate so far.
Demographic trends show sharp divides within the Democratic base. McMorrow performs best among voters age 60 and older, while El-Sayed draws his strongest support from younger voters under 30. Stevens shows steadier numbers across age groups, but lacks a dominant voting bloc.
On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed former Congressman Mike Rogers is widely viewed as the likely GOP nominee. Rogers narrowly lost last year’s Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, but remains well-known statewide and closely aligned with President Donald Trump.
In hypothetical general election matchups, Democrats currently hold slim leads — but with major caveats. McMorrow leads Rogers by three points, Stevens by five points, while El-Sayed and Rogers are tied. In every scenario, double-digit percentages of voters remain undecided, suggesting the race could swing sharply.
The battle to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Michigan remains a true swing state, where Slotkin won her Senate race even as President Trump carried the state in the 2024 presidential election, defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The survey was conducted January 24–25 among 1,000 likely Michigan voters and carries a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points. Among the 491 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed, the interval was 4.4 points.
With voters still undecided and both parties preparing to spend heavily, Michigan’s Senate race is shaping up to be a defining political fight — and one that could play a major role in determining control of the U.S. Senate.
