Democrat To Replace RINO?
A newly released statewide poll is sending shockwaves through Maine politics — and it could have major implications for the balance of power in Washington.
According to fresh data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, progressive Democrat Graham Platner has built a commanding advantage in the Democratic primary and is even posting competitive numbers against Republican Senator Susan Collins in a hypothetical general election matchup.
For longtime political observers in the Pine Tree State, the numbers are raising serious questions about where this race is headed.
Platner Dominates Governor Janet Mills in Democratic Primary
The poll shows Platner leading Gov. Janet Mills by an overwhelming 64% to 26% among likely Democratic primary voters. Only 6% remain undecided.
That represents growth from an October survey that showed Platner ahead 58% to 24%. His support has expanded while undecided voters have sharply declined — a sign that Democratic voters may be consolidating behind him.
If the primary were held today, the numbers suggest it would not be close.
General Election: Platner vs. Susan Collins
In a potential November showdown, Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 38%, with 9% undecided and 4% preferring another candidate.
Among independent voters — often the deciding force in Maine elections — Platner holds a nine-point edge over Collins.
However, a Collins vs. Mills matchup tells a different story. That race is essentially tied, with Mills at 41% and Collins at 40%. Given the poll’s ±2.9% margin of error, neither candidate holds a clear advantage.
Notably, Collins maintains a six-point lead among independents in that scenario.
Controversy Hasn’t Slowed Platner’s Momentum
Platner’s political resilience is particularly striking given the turbulence surrounding his campaign.
Last year, he faced backlash over now-deleted social media posts in which he criticized law enforcement and made statements that drew sharp criticism from both sides of the aisle. He later distanced himself from those remarks.
Several campaign staff members departed during the controversy, creating what many believed would be a crippling setback.
Yet the new polling suggests his core support remains intact — and possibly growing.
For many voters watching the direction of the Democratic Party, that may say more about the party’s evolving base than about any single candidate.
Why Maine’s Senate Seat Is So Important
Democrats have long viewed Maine as one of their best pickup opportunities in the U.S. Senate. But defeating Susan Collins has proven far more difficult than many predicted in past cycles.
Collins has built a reputation as a durable political figure in a politically divided state. Even during national wave elections, she has maintained strong support among moderates and independents.
With President Donald Trump back in the White House and national politics shifting once again, control of the Senate could hinge on states like Maine.
That makes this race one to watch closely in the months ahead.
Poll Methodology
The University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll was conducted February 12–16.
- 1,162 Maine residents participated online
- 1,120 were classified as likely voters
- Overall margin of error: ±2.9%
Primary samples included:
- 478 likely Democratic voters (±4.5%)
- 406 likely Republican voters (±4.9%)
What Happens Next?
If these numbers hold, Maine could become one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
Will Democratic voters continue consolidating behind Platner?
Can Susan Collins once again defy expectations?
Or will national political trends reshape the battlefield?
One thing is certain: this race just became far more interesting.
