GOP To Keep Senate Control?
Veteran Republican pollster Patrick Allocco says fears that Republicans could lose control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections are misplaced, arguing that Democrats face a steep and unlikely climb to flip the chamber.
Appearing Monday on Newsmax, Allocco said the political math strongly favors Republicans once voters move past speculation and look closely at the Senate map.
According to Allocco, Democrats would need an almost flawless election night to take control — a scenario he described as highly improbable under current conditions.
“To win the Senate, Democrats would have to sweep,” Allocco said. “That’s a very tall order.”
He explained that Democrats must first defend every competitive seat they already hold, several of which are shaping up to be difficult races. Any losses in those contests would immediately derail their chances.
Even if Democrats manage to hold those seats, Allocco said they would still need to score multiple victories in states that historically lean Republican or remain closely divided.
He pointed to Georgia as a key battleground where Republicans are well positioned to challenge incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff. He also highlighted the open Senate race in New Hampshire following the retirement of longtime Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen, calling it another serious opportunity for the GOP.
But the hurdles extend well beyond those states.
For Democrats to gain control of the Senate, Allocco said they would also need to flip seats in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska — a combination he called unrealistic.
“When you add it all up, the numbers simply don’t work,” Allocco said. “Democrats would need a net gain of four seats, and there’s no clear path to get there.”
Allocco added that broader political trends, voter turnout patterns, and the current electoral map continue to favor Republicans, particularly in key swing and red-leaning states.
His conclusion was straightforward.
“Republicans will retain control of the Senate,” Allocco said.
