Clinton Insider Says Democrats Doomed?
A top Democratic insider is lowering expectations for his party, admitting that sweeping gains in Congress next year are unlikely — thanks to the lasting political realignment fueled by Donald Trump.
Doug Sosnik, a senior adviser to Bill Clinton during the 1990s, wrote in a memo that Democrats are “dreaming too big” if they think midterm history alone will hand them control of Congress. While Trump’s approval ratings may be rocky, Sosnik admitted Republicans are far better positioned than Democrats want to believe.
Trump’s Movement Reshaped the Map
According to Sosnik, Democrats are leaning too heavily on college-educated voters — a shrinking minority of the electorate — while bleeding support from working-class Americans, small-town communities, and rural families.
“We may be living in the Age of Trump, but he is the symptom, not the cause,” Sosnik explained. “For now, Trump and Republicans remain the clear beneficiaries of America’s political realignment.”
This means the traditional “president’s approval = midterm losses” formula no longer guarantees Democrats a win.
Fewer Toss-Ups, Tougher Odds
Sosnik highlighted how few competitive races remain. Democrats need four Senate seats to flip control, but only six races are truly up for grabs — and half are already Democratic defenses.
In the House, only about a dozen districts are real toss-ups, compared to dozens in past cycles. On top of that, GOP redistricting victories, stronger fundraising networks, and higher voter registration give Republicans a durable edge.
“Democrats are running out of battlegrounds,” Sosnik admitted, a sobering reality for a party desperate for a win.
Trump’s Base Holds the Advantage
Sosnik compared Trump’s approval ratings to Bill Clinton’s in 1994 and Barack Obama’s in 2010 — years when Democrats were crushed in midterms. But unlike then, Republicans are now more insulated from disaster because Trump’s America First movement has reshaped the voter base.
While Democrats may benefit from turnout among college-educated suburbanites, Sosnik noted that this group alone isn’t enough to counter the GOP’s dominance with working families, small business owners, and rural America.
“The 2026 outcome will be decided by a historically low number of competitive races,” Sosnik concluded. “And right now, Republicans hold the stronger hand.”
Bottom Line
Even Democratic insiders now admit the midterm battlefield is stacked in Trump’s favor. With fewer swing seats, strong GOP infrastructure, and a political realignment that favors working Americans, Republicans are well-positioned to hold — and even expand — their power in Congress.
For Democrats, the so-called “Blue Wave” may be nothing more than a mirage.
