As President Trump closes out the first year of his second term, Americans are delivering a mixed report card — and the economy is front and center.
New polling shows Trump’s approval rating has edged upward after months of political and economic turbulence, but it remains well below the level he enjoyed when he returned to the Oval Office. Rising prices, affordability concerns, and lingering fallout from Washington dysfunction continue to weigh heavily on voter sentiment.
According to national polling averages, Trump’s approval dipped to a second-term low during the historic government shutdown earlier this year. Since then, his numbers have recovered modestly, settling back into the mid-40 percent range — roughly where they have hovered for most of his presidency.
Political analysts say the numbers reflect a deeply divided country rather than a sudden shift in opinion.
Early Momentum Fades as Economic Pressure Builds
Trump began his second term with positive momentum following his 2024 election victory. Many voters expected swift economic relief, lower prices, and a return to stability after years of uncertainty.
That optimism faded in the spring as inflation concerns intensified and market volatility followed the administration’s aggressive trade actions. Tariffs imposed on foreign competitors sparked debate, rattled Wall Street, and added pressure to household budgets already stretched thin.
By late spring, Trump’s approval had slid into the low 40s. A modest rebound followed in early summer as voters adjusted to the tariff impact and immigration enforcement dominated fewer headlines. Still, approval remained stuck below majority support.
The fall government shutdown proved to be another turning point. Economic uncertainty tied to the shutdown pushed Trump’s approval to its lowest point of the term. When the shutdown ended, the president regained some ground — but not enough to return to early-term levels.
Recent surveys now consistently show more Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance than approve, marking a notable shift from the optimism seen at the start of the year.
Economy Emerges as Trump’s Biggest Political Test
Despite campaigning heavily on economic strength, the economy remains Trump’s weakest issue in the polls.
When voters were asked to grade the president’s economic performance using a traditional A-to-F scale, a plurality gave him a failing mark. Inflation, grocery prices, housing costs, and energy expenses continue to rank as top concerns for Americans — especially older voters on fixed incomes.
While Trump has repeatedly dismissed affordability concerns as politically motivated attacks from Democrats, many voters say the strain on household budgets feels very real.
Polls also show that as Trump’s term progresses, more Americans believe he now bears primary responsibility for the state of the economy, rather than his predecessor. Analysts note this is a natural shift as a presidency matures — but it raises the political stakes heading into 2026.
Even so, Republicans continue to outperform Democrats on economic trust. Surveys consistently show that voters, while frustrated with current conditions, still trust Trump and Republicans more than Democrats in Congress to manage the economy going forward.
Messaging Battle in Key Swing States
Trump has spent recent weeks making his economic case directly to voters, including high-profile stops in battleground states like Pennsylvania.
At rallies and public appearances, the president has argued that prices are coming down, wages are improving, and Democratic criticism is exaggerated. He has framed economic frustration as a temporary disruption rather than a long-term failure.
Whether voters accept that argument remains uncertain — particularly among independents, who polling suggests are more skeptical than Trump’s Republican base.
Immigration Remains a Core Strength
While economic numbers have dragged down Trump’s overall approval, immigration continues to be one of his strongest issues.
Polling consistently shows majority support for tougher border enforcement and for deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. These policies draw especially strong backing from Republicans and older voters concerned about safety and national sovereignty.
Border security remains Trump’s highest-rated issue across multiple surveys. However, even here, support has softened slightly compared to the early months of his second term. Some voters now say deportation efforts may be going too far, signaling a more nuanced debate emerging within the electorate.
Still, compared to the economy, immigration remains a relative bright spot for the administration.
What It Means for Republicans in 2026
As Republicans look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, affordability is becoming an increasingly urgent concern — even within Trump’s own party.
Recent polling suggests softening enthusiasm among parts of the MAGA base, raising questions about turnout if economic pressures continue. Off-year election losses have added to internal debate over messaging, priorities, and strategy.
The first year of Trump’s second term has reinforced a familiar reality: his supporters remain loyal, his critics remain entrenched, and swing voters are focused almost entirely on their personal finances.
For many Americans, the final grade on Trump’s presidency may come down to a simple question — does the economy feel better in their daily lives?
