Here’s what Americans need to know.
A senior economic official closely aligned with President Trump says Americans should prepare for significantly larger tax refunds and higher take-home pay next year, offering reassurance as many families continue to struggle with rising costs.
During an interview on Fox Business, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council and a leading contender to become President Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair, said the administration is projecting what could be the largest tax refund season in American history.
“We’re expecting the biggest refund cycle the country has ever seen,” Hassett said on Varney & Co.. “Many Americans are going to receive very large refund checks. Just that portion alone could mean a couple thousand dollars back for families.”
Trump: Refund Season Will Be “Historic”
President Trump reinforced that message during a Wednesday evening address, predicting that next spring will deliver “the largest tax refund season of all time.”
According to the president, many households could see annual savings between $11,000 and $20,000, depending on income and filing status.
Those comments come as affordability remains a top concern nationwide. A recent Fox News poll found that 44 percent of Americans say they are falling behind financially, while 74 percent describe the economy as “not so good” or “bad.”
Wages Rising Faster Than Inflation
Hassett pushed back on that pessimism, pointing to wage growth and cooling inflation as signs the economy is improving—especially for working Americans.
“The latest jobs report shows wages for the typical worker are up about 3.7 percent,” he explained. “With core inflation closer to 1.6 percent, real wages are rising.”
By administration estimates, Hassett said blue-collar workers have already gained nearly $2,000 in real income this year after adjusting for inflation.
“That’s money people don’t always see immediately,” he noted, “but it adds up over time.”
Why Many Americans Haven’t Felt It Yet
Hassett also reminded viewers that similar skepticism existed during President Trump’s first term—before tax changes fully showed up in paychecks and refunds.
“The Big, Beautiful Bill wasn’t passed until mid-summer,” he said. “A lot of the tax changes didn’t appear on early tax forms. But eventually, people saw the difference in their wallets.”
Inflation Cooling, Growth Returning
The economic adviser struck an optimistic tone overall, highlighting what he described as a strong November inflation report that came in below economist expectations.
According to Hassett, the administration’s strategy of expanding domestic production and boosting supply is beginning to ease price pressures.
“When you push hard on supply, prices come down,” he said. “That’s exactly what we saw in President Trump’s first term—growth near 3 percent with inflation around 1 percent.”
“And based on current data,” Hassett added, “it looks like we’re heading back there again.”
