Americans hoping for new tariff rebate checks may be disappointed.
Fresh data from the real-money prediction market Kalshi shows confidence collapsing, with the odds of new payments dropping to just 5% as the year winds down. Earlier this month, traders placed the chances near 13%, but expectations have sharply faded.
Kalshi, a platform where users can bet on political, economic, and cultural events, has already seen more than $450,000 wagered on this question alone. The message from traders is clear: Washington may not deliver the relief many Americans were hoping for.
⭐ Trump’s Proposal: $2,000 Checks Funded by Tariffs — Not Taxpayers
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that tariff revenue, collected from foreign countries, could be used to send $2,000 rebate checks directly to Americans.
His plan would return money to U.S. citizens without raising taxes, while also helping reduce the nation’s staggering $38 trillion debt.
For many older Americans, the idea of using foreign tariff payments—not taxpayer dollars—to support U.S. families represents a common-sense approach that puts America First.
⭐ Why the Odds Are Falling: Legal Challenges and Supreme Court Doubts
The declining outlook for rebate checks is tied to a growing belief that the Supreme Court may not uphold Trump’s broad tariff authority.
- Kalshi traders now place the chance of a Court victory for Trump at 22%, down more than 23 points after oral arguments.
- Polymarket traders show similar skepticism, with odds also at 23%, after falling 15 points in recent days.
At issue is Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose emergency tariffs aimed at stopping unfair foreign trade practices and protecting American jobs.
⭐ Trump Warns of National Consequences
President Trump has warned that weakening presidential tariff authority could leave the United States “virtually defenseless against other countries.”
He has called the case “life or death for our country,” stressing that America must maintain the power to protect its workers, industries, and national security.
⭐ America Waits on the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court has not yet issued its ruling, leaving Trump’s trade agenda — and the possibility of tariff-funded rebate checks — in a holding pattern.
For millions of Americans who support strong borders, strong tariffs, and strong national leadership, the Court’s upcoming decision could shape the future of U.S. economic policy for years to come.
