Democrats Poised for a Stunning Win in the Deep-Red
Miami—long considered one of the most reliably conservative cities in America—appears ready to elect a Democrat mayor for the first time in nearly three decades. New polls and betting markets show Democrat Eileen Higgins holding a commanding lead over Republican Emilio González, who is proudly endorsed by President Donald Trump.
For conservatives, this election is more than a local disappointment. It represents a warning sign in a city Trump previously helped turn red—and in his own home state of Florida.
A Deep-Red GOP Stronghold Suddenly Slipping Away
Miami is the cultural and economic engine of South Florida and a crucial Republican fortress. The city hasn’t elected a Democrat mayor in nearly 30 years, and Trump’s strong showing in Miami-Dade had reinforced the GOP’s hold on the region.
Now, with Democrats outperforming in early voting and polls showing Higgins with a decisive edge, Republicans are facing a dramatic wake-up call ahead of the 2026 midterms. A Democratic win here could energize the Left nationally and raise questions about GOP turnout and organization in key battlegrounds.
Polls Show Democrats in a Strong Position
Multiple polls point to the same outcome: Higgins is heavily favored.
- Polymarket forecast: Higgins 94% chance of winning; González 6%.
- APL Consulting poll (Nov. 21–24): Higgins 34%, González 31%.
- MDW Communications poll: Higgins 49.8%, González 23.7%.
- November 4 results: Higgins 36%; González 19%.
Early voting numbers also favor Democrats:
- 8,700+ registered Democrats have already voted.
- 7,200+ Republicans have cast ballots.
- 5,000 independents have submitted votes.
This turnout gap is raising alarms among Republicans who expected Miami to remain securely red.
Higgins Pushes Left-Leaning Agenda in a Conservative City
Higgins has pitched herself as a “results-driven leader” and is campaigning on traditional Democrat priorities such as:
- Expanded affordable housing
- “Safer communities” through new city programs
- Increased government accountability
- Major new infrastructure spending
- Additional support for small businesses
She argues Miami residents are demanding “honest leadership” and a government that “finally works for them.”
Her message appears to be resonating with younger voters, independents, and moderate Democrats—groups that traditionally struggle to overpower GOP voters in Miami.
Trump Endorses González in a High-Stakes Battle
President Trump issued a full endorsement of González on November 16, praising him as:
- A successful businessman
- A proven civic leader
- A U.S. Army veteran
- A former director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
- A strong supporter of law enforcement and America’s military
Trump highlighted González’s commitment to:
- Growing Miami’s economy
- Cutting taxes and regulations
- Strengthening border security
- Stopping migrant crime
- Protecting the Second Amendment
- Boosting American energy dominance
Despite the endorsement, voters appear to be breaking toward the Democrat candidate.
Why This Election Matters for Conservatives Nationwide
If Republicans lose Miami, it would be:
- The first Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years
- A major symbolic loss in Trump’s home state
- A shift in a city Trump helped turn red
- A potential bellwether for 2026
- A sign of deeper GOP turnout struggles in urban centers
Miami’s mayoral race may not dominate national headlines, but the political implications are enormous. Conservatives will be watching closely to see whether GOP voters rally—or whether a longtime Republican stronghold slips away just days before the December 9 vote.
