Democrat Holding Bigger Lead Over Republican

A new poll out of Wisconsin is delivering concerning news for Republicans as the race for governor enters its final days, with Democratic candidate David Crowley expanding his advantage over Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll, released Wednesday, shows Crowley leading Tiffany by seven percentage points among likely voters, marking a noticeable shift in one of the country’s closely watched gubernatorial contests.

According to the survey, 51% of likely voters support Crowley, compared to 44% who favor Tiffany. Another 4% remain undecided.

The results represent a larger advantage for Crowley than the previous Marquette survey conducted in September, when the Democrat led Tiffany by a narrower 49% to 46% margin.

The latest findings come just days before Wisconsin voters head to the polls on November 3 to select a replacement for outgoing Democratic Governor Tony Evers, who is not seeking another term.

Despite the disappointing numbers for Republicans, the contest is not necessarily over.

Among all registered voters, Crowley’s advantage is considerably smaller, with the Democrat receiving 47% support compared to Tiffany’s 44%. Another 9% of registered voters remain undecided.

That difference could prove important as both campaigns work to motivate supporters and persuade voters who have yet to make a final decision.

One particularly noteworthy finding involves independent voters, a group that often plays a decisive role in closely contested Wisconsin elections.

The poll found that Crowley enjoys 56% support among likely independent voters, while Tiffany receives 26%. The remaining 18% are undecided.

Those numbers suggest the Republican candidate faces a significant challenge in attracting voters outside his party’s traditional base.

Crowley has also experienced an improvement in his public image, with his favorable rating increasing from 31% in September to 37% in October.

Tiffany’s favorable rating increased more modestly, moving from 39% to 40% during the same period.

However, both candidates continue to receive more unfavorable than favorable ratings among registered voters, indicating that neither has completely won over the electorate.

Voter enthusiasm could be another important factor in determining the outcome.

The Marquette survey found that 82% of Democratic voters expressed enthusiasm about participating in the midterm elections, compared to 74% of Republicans.

That enthusiasm advantage could provide Democrats with an organizational benefit heading into Election Day, particularly if their supporters turn out in greater numbers.

Still, the polling also revealed a potential opening for Tiffany.

While Crowley leads among voters who say they are certain to cast a ballot or have already voted, Tiffany performs better among those who describe themselves as very likely to vote but are not completely certain.

This distinction highlights why turnout remains such an important consideration. If Republican campaigns successfully encourage less-certain voters to participate, the final results could differ from current polling expectations.

The race also reflects broader political divisions over the direction of Wisconsin.

Tiffany, a Republican congressman, is seeking to return the governor’s office to GOP control after years of Democratic leadership under Evers.

Crowley, who serves as Milwaukee County executive, hopes to maintain Democratic control of the state’s highest office.

For Wisconsin residents, the election carries significant consequences for decisions involving taxes, education, government spending, economic development, and other major state policies.

The latest survey was conducted October 14 through October 22 and included 818 registered Wisconsin voters. Its margin of error was 4.3 percentage points among registered voters and 4.7 percentage points among the 668 likely voters.

As with any political survey, the results represent a snapshot of voter preferences rather than a guarantee of what will happen on Election Day.

Wisconsin has a long history of competitive statewide elections, and relatively small changes in voter participation can influence the final outcome.

For Tiffany and Wisconsin Republicans, the challenge now is translating campaign support into actual votes while attempting to close Crowley’s polling advantage.

For Crowley and Democrats, the priority will be maintaining their momentum and ensuring supporters participate in the election.

With November 3 rapidly approaching, the latest numbers give Democrats reason for optimism, but the voters will ultimately determine which party controls the Wisconsin governor’s office.