Talarico Gains More Momentum

The Texas U.S. Senate race is drawing growing national attention as Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico compete in a contest that recent polling suggests could be unusually close.

At the center of the political battle is the Dallas-Fort Worth region, where rapid population growth, corporate expansion and changing voting patterns have transformed some once-reliable Republican suburbs into highly competitive territory.

For Republicans, the immediate challenge is keeping traditional GOP voters — particularly in Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties — engaged in the Senate race.

Some Republican activists say dissatisfaction with Paxton could lead a portion of those voters to support Talarico or skip the Senate contest while still voting for other Republican candidates.

Texas Republicans See Warning Signs in Dallas-Fort Worth

The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area has become increasingly important in statewide elections.

Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties accounted for nearly one-quarter of all votes cast in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, giving the region enormous influence over statewide results.

For decades, many of the surrounding suburbs were dependable Republican territory.

That advantage has weakened.

Tarrant County supported the Democratic Senate candidate in 2018 and narrowly did so again in 2024. Republicans have continued winning Collin and Denton counties, but their margins have narrowed compared with earlier elections.

That trend has made suburban turnout one of the central issues in the Paxton-Talarico race.

Republican Leader Issues Stark Warning

Jill Tate, president of the Texas Federation of Republican Women, told The Texas Tribune that she is more concerned about the state’s political environment than at any previous point in her decades of Republican organizing.

“This is truly the first time I’ve felt in my bones we could lose the Texas House, and we could lose a statewide seat,” Tate said.

Her concern reflects a broader challenge facing Republican organizers in North Texas.

Some traditionally dependable GOP voters have expressed uncertainty about Paxton, creating pressure on the Republican campaign to consolidate its base before Election Day.

The Texas Tribune reported September 24 that several Republicans in the region said they were struggling with their Senate choice or knew voters who were considering leaving the race blank.

Paxton’s Past Controversies Remain Part of the Race

Some Republican voters interviewed by the Tribune pointed to Paxton’s personal and legal history when explaining their hesitation.

Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on allegations involving his conduct as attorney general.

The Texas Senate later acquitted him following an impeachment trial.

Separately, securities fraud charges that had followed Paxton for years were dropped in 2024 after an agreement under which he completed community service, ethics training and restitution. Paxton did not admit guilt.

Paxton’s wife, Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, also cited adultery in a 2025 divorce petition.

Those issues have continued to receive attention during the Senate campaign and have contributed to concerns among some Republican voters interviewed in North Texas.

Paxton Campaign Points to His Record as Attorney General

Paxton’s campaign is urging voters to focus on his record in office.

His supporters have highlighted his work involving consumer protection, technology companies, food labeling and cases involving the safety of children.

The campaign has also warned Republican voters that skipping the Senate contest could make it easier for Talarico to win even if those voters support GOP candidates farther down the ballot.

That argument could prove especially important in suburban counties where Republican candidates still receive hundreds of thousands of votes.

Polling Has Put Texas in the National Spotlight

Recent polling has added urgency to Republican concerns.

Several surveys conducted in 2026 have shown Talarico running competitively against Paxton, with some putting the Democrat ahead.

The Texas Tribune reported September 17 that Talarico had been leading Paxton in multiple polls, an unusual development in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades.

A ReconMR survey released in September showed Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%.

Other polling has shown a much narrower contest, demonstrating why individual surveys should be interpreted alongside their margins of error, sample composition and methodology.

Polls represent snapshots of voter opinion rather than guarantees about Election Day results.

Texas Has Long Been Difficult Territory for Democrats

Despite the competitive polling, Democrats face a significant historical obstacle.

Republicans have not lost a statewide Texas election in more than three decades.

Democrats have narrowed the gap in several recent races but have repeatedly fallen short.

Beto O’Rourke lost his 2018 U.S. Senate race against Ted Cruz by about 2.6 percentage points despite strong Democratic gains in major suburban areas.

Joe Biden lost Texas by roughly 5 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.

Democrat Colin Allred also failed to win his 2024 Senate race despite competitive results in several metropolitan counties.

Those elections illustrate an important reality: Democratic gains in Texas suburbs have not necessarily translated into statewide victories.

Dallas-Fort Worth Could Decide How Close the Race Becomes

The four major Dallas-Fort Worth counties represent an enormous pool of voters.

Dallas County has generally become Democratic territory, while Tarrant County has moved toward being highly competitive.

Collin and Denton counties remain Republican-leaning but have become less overwhelmingly Republican than they were in previous decades.

That creates a difficult balancing act for both campaigns.

Talarico needs strong Democratic turnout in Dallas and Tarrant counties while cutting into Republican margins in Collin and Denton.

Paxton, meanwhile, needs to prevent dissatisfied Republican voters from staying home, skipping the Senate contest or crossing party lines.

Even relatively small changes among suburban voters could have significant statewide consequences.

Republican Groups Commit Major Resources

The competitiveness of the race has also triggered substantial political spending.

The Senate Leadership Fund has reportedly increased its planned Texas advertising investment to $100 million in support of Paxton.

That is an unusually large commitment for a state Republicans have historically been able to count on in statewide contests.

The spending demonstrates how seriously national Republican groups are treating the Texas race.

Suburban Women Become an Important Voting Bloc

Republican organizers have placed particular emphasis on suburban women.

According to The Texas Tribune, some Republican women interviewed in the Dallas-Fort Worth area expressed unease with Paxton while still identifying strongly with conservative policy positions.

That creates a potentially important group of voters who may support Republican candidates elsewhere on the ballot while remaining undecided about the Senate contest.

Paxton’s campaign has responded by emphasizing issues it believes resonate with suburban families, including consumer protection and children’s safety.

Paxton Still Has a Large Republican Base

Despite the concerns surrounding his candidacy, Paxton continues to benefit from Texas’ longstanding Republican advantage.

Hundreds of thousands of voters in Collin, Denton and Tarrant counties are expected to support Republican candidates.

Some initially hesitant voters have also told the Tribune that they ultimately intend to support Paxton because they agree more closely with his policy positions.

That means the central question is not simply whether Republicans dislike aspects of Paxton’s record.

The more important electoral question is whether those concerns are strong enough to change how they vote.

What Happens Next

Several factors could shape the final weeks of the Texas Senate race:

• Republican turnout in Collin and Denton counties
• Tarrant County’s final margin
• Democratic turnout in Dallas County
• The behavior of suburban women
• Independent and undecided voters
• Outside advertising spending
• Late-breaking economic or political developments

With both parties investing heavily in Texas, the state’s suburban counties are likely to remain a major focus through Election Day.

Bottom Line

Texas remains a state with a long record of Republican statewide victories, but the 2026 Senate race is developing differently from many previous contests.

Recent polling has shown James Talarico competing closely with Ken Paxton, while Republican activists in Dallas-Fort Worth have publicly acknowledged concerns about maintaining party unity.

Whether those concerns ultimately translate into changed voting behavior will be one of the key questions surrounding the race.

For now, Dallas-Fort Worth stands at the center of a Texas Senate contest receiving far more national attention than Republicans have traditionally faced in the state.