Voters Blaming Trump For What?
President Donald Trump is facing new political pressure ahead of the November midterm elections after an NBC News poll showed his approval rating falling to its lowest level of his second term.
The survey found that 41% of registered voters approve of Trump’s performance in office, while 56% disapprove. Just 25% said they strongly approve of the job he is doing.
The poll was conducted Sept. 11-15 among 1,000 registered voters by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
With the Nov. 3 midterm elections approaching, the results highlight growing voter concern over the economy, inflation and the cost of living.
Majority Says Trump Policies Have Hurt the Economy
One of the most significant findings involves voters’ perceptions of the economy.
According to the NBC News poll, 55% of registered voters said they believe Trump’s policies have hurt the economy.
That figure has increased from 48% in March.
The change comes as Americans continue to deal with concerns about gasoline prices, household expenses and the overall cost of living. The U.S. conflict with Iran has also contributed to higher energy costs, adding another economic issue for voters to consider.
The economy has traditionally been one of the most important factors in national elections, particularly for older Americans and families living on fixed incomes who can feel the effects of higher prices quickly.
Groceries, gasoline, utilities, housing costs, insurance and health care expenses can all influence how voters judge the condition of the economy.
The latest poll suggests many Americans remain dissatisfied with their personal economic circumstances even as Republicans and Democrats offer competing explanations for current conditions.
Economic Numbers Look Different From Trump’s First Term
The latest findings also stand in contrast with the political environment during Trump’s first term.
At approximately the same point before the 2018 midterm elections, more voters said Trump’s policies were helping the economy than hurting it.
The 2026 numbers show a different picture, with a majority now saying his policies have had a negative effect.
That does not necessarily mean voters hold Trump solely responsible for every economic development.
Presidents have influence over taxes, federal spending, regulation, trade and energy policy, but inflation and economic growth are also affected by interest rates, global conflicts, supply chains, consumer demand and decisions made by businesses and the Federal Reserve.
The poll measures voters’ perceptions rather than independently determining the causes of current economic conditions.
Democrats Lead Congressional Preference by Five Points
Despite Trump’s weaker approval numbers, the same NBC News survey shows a relatively competitive contest for control of Congress.
Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 45% when registered voters are asked which party they would prefer to control Congress.
The five-point difference is considerably smaller than the Democratic advantage recorded at a similar point before the 2018 midterm elections.
In 2018, Democrats held a 12-point advantage in the comparable NBC polling measure before eventually gaining control of the House of Representatives.
Republicans retained control of the Senate that year.
The comparison illustrates why presidential approval ratings alone do not determine congressional elections.
Individual House and Senate races can be shaped by local candidates, district boundaries, turnout, campaign spending and state-level political conditions.
Democrats Face Their Own Favorability Problem
The poll also contains warning signs for Democrats.
Only 29% of voters reported having a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 36% who viewed the Republican Party positively.
That means dissatisfaction with Trump does not automatically translate into strong enthusiasm for Democrats.
This distinction could become important as both parties compete for undecided and independent voters.
Republicans can argue that voters should compare the records and proposals of both parties rather than treating the midterms solely as a referendum on Trump.
Democrats, meanwhile, are likely to emphasize the president’s approval numbers, economic dissatisfaction and concerns about the cost of living.
The result is an electorate showing substantial frustration without necessarily demonstrating overwhelming enthusiasm for either party.
More Voters Say Their Ballot Will Signal Opposition to Trump
Trump remains a central factor in voters’ thinking about the midterms even though his name will not appear on the ballot.
About 43% of registered voters told NBC News that their midterm vote would be intended to send a message of opposition to Trump.
Another 27% said their vote would be intended as a message of support for the president.
NBC reported that the opposition figure is the highest it has recorded heading into a midterm election during approximately three decades of polling.
Those numbers indicate that congressional candidates may have difficulty separating themselves entirely from the national political debate.
Republican candidates could face questions about which Trump administration policies they support, while Democratic candidates are likely to be asked how they would respond to the administration if their party gains additional power in Congress.
Trump’s Tax and Spending Law Also Divides Voters
The president’s 2025 tax and spending legislation is another issue that could influence congressional races.
The NBC survey found that 42% of registered voters said they would be less likely to support a candidate who voted for the law.
By comparison, 36% said support for the legislation would make them more likely to back that candidate.
Those numbers give both parties an opportunity to make competing economic arguments.
Republicans can point to provisions they say encourage economic growth, reduce taxes or advance other policy priorities.
Democrats can focus on portions of the legislation they argue have increased costs, deficits or financial pressure on certain households.
Ultimately, voters will decide which argument they find more convincing.
Cost of Living Could Dominate the Midterm Debate
The broader message from the poll is that household finances remain a major concern.
For many Americans, economic debates in Washington ultimately come down to everyday expenses.
How much does a gallon of gasoline cost?
Are grocery bills increasing?
What are families paying for electricity, property taxes and insurance?
Can retirees make their savings and Social Security benefits stretch far enough?
Those practical concerns can have a greater political impact than statistics such as gross domestic product or stock-market performance.
That makes affordability an especially important subject as candidates enter the final weeks of campaigning.
FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Raises Concerns About Polling
The NBC survey was released against the backdrop of a separate debate involving Trump, NBC News and Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr.
Earlier in September, Carr appeared on Fox News’ “The Sunday Briefing” and discussed the responsibilities of television broadcasters operating under FCC licenses.
Carr said there was significant interest in what he described as “fake polls” and indicated that the FCC could issue guidance reminding broadcasters of their obligations.
His comments followed Trump’s criticism of NBC News anchor Kristen Welker.
Trump accused Welker of inaccurately characterizing the results of his political endorsements and said she should be reported to the FCC.
NBC defended Welker following the president’s criticism.
FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez publicly pushed back against the possibility of punishing journalists over their reporting, saying the agency does not have authority to penalize reporters simply because an administration disagrees with their coverage.
The FCC licenses individual broadcast stations rather than television networks themselves, and its longstanding news-distortion policy distinguishes deliberate falsification from ordinary disputes over accuracy, editorial judgment or interpretation.
Polling Is a Snapshot, Not an Election Result
Political polls can provide useful information about public opinion, but they should also be viewed in context.
The NBC survey questioned registered voters rather than predicting exactly who will participate in the Nov. 3 election.
Turnout can change the composition of the electorate considerably.
Campaign events, economic developments, international conflicts and candidate debates can also influence voter attitudes before Election Day.
Different polling organizations may produce somewhat different results because they use different sampling techniques, weighting methods and assumptions.
For that reason, one survey should generally be viewed alongside other credible polling rather than treated as a guaranteed forecast.
Republicans and Democrats Face Different Challenges
The NBC poll presents political challenges for both major parties.
For Republicans, Trump’s 41% approval rating and voter dissatisfaction with the economy create issues that candidates may have to address directly.
For Democrats, weak party favorability means criticism of the Trump administration may not by itself be enough to generate broad enthusiasm.
That combination could make economic policy especially important during the final weeks before the midterms.
Candidates are likely to debate taxes, government spending, gasoline prices, inflation, jobs and the overall cost of living as they try to convince voters that their party offers the stronger approach.
With control of Congress at stake, both parties will be watching economic indicators and public opinion closely.
The latest NBC News poll provides one snapshot of where registered voters stand in September.
The final decision, however, will come when Americans cast their ballots on Nov. 3.
