Republican Confidence Grows About Midterms
Political strategist Dick Morris is predicting that Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections — and could potentially increase their majority by one or two seats.
Morris laid out his assessment Saturday while discussing some of the most closely watched Senate races in the country, including contests in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
His comments come as both parties pour money and resources into competitive races that could determine which party controls the Senate beginning in 2027.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats hold 45, while two independents caucus with Democrats.
That means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach an outright 51-seat majority under the current Senate lineup.
Morris Expects GOP to Defend Most Republican Seats
During an appearance on Newsmax’s Saturday Report, Morris was asked whether increased campaign spending in Texas could significantly affect the fight for Senate control.
He responded by reviewing several Republican-held seats that Democrats are targeting.
Morris said he expects Republicans to prevail in Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Maine and Alaska.
Those predictions represent Morris’s political analysis rather than confirmed outcomes. Voters will decide the races in the November election, and campaign conditions can change substantially before Election Day.
One Republican-held seat Morris identified as particularly competitive is North Carolina.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against Republican Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
Morris acknowledged that Republicans could lose North Carolina but said he does not view a Democratic victory there as certain.
North Carolina is particularly important because it gives Democrats an opportunity to gain a seat currently controlled by Republicans rather than simply defending one of their own.
Texas Senate Battle Attracts Major Money
Texas has also become a major focus of national attention.
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico in the general election after Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn during the GOP primary process.
Republican organizations have responded by committing substantial campaign resources to the state.
According to the figures discussed in the Newsmax report, President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC is spending $10 million on advertising, while the Senate Leadership Fund has committed at least $43 million.
The financial picture has also attracted attention because Talarico reportedly entered this stage of the campaign with considerably more cash available than Paxton.
Talarico was reported to have approximately $21.5 million in cash on hand, compared with approximately $1.8 million for Paxton.
Campaign cash does not determine an election by itself, but it can affect how much candidates are able to spend on television advertising, digital campaigns, voter outreach and get-out-the-vote operations.
For Republicans, defending Texas is especially important because losing an existing GOP seat would make retaining the Senate majority more difficult.
Republicans See Opportunities in Democratic-Held States
Morris argued that Republicans are not limited to defending their current seats.
He identified four Democratic-held states where he believes Republicans have opportunities to make gains: Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia and New Hampshire.
Three of those contests involve open seats because Democratic senators Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire are not seeking another term.
Georgia, meanwhile, features an incumbent Democratic senator seeking reelection.
Michigan Emerges as Closely Watched Contest
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers for the seat currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
Morris predicted that Rogers will win the race.
Polling mentioned in the original report, however, showed El-Sayed holding a narrow advantage at the time, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding the contest.
Michigan has frequently been competitive in statewide elections, making the Senate race one of the contests receiving significant national attention in 2026.
Economic issues, manufacturing, trade and the cost of living are among the subjects likely to remain prominent as voters evaluate the candidates.
Minnesota Features Tafoya-Flanagan Contest
Minnesota is another state where Republicans are attempting to capture a seat currently held by Democrats.
Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya is the Republican nominee, while Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is representing her party.
They are competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.
Morris included Minnesota among the four Democratic-held states where he believes Republicans have an opportunity to gain ground.
Whether that happens will depend on voters rather than national predictions, and both campaigns still have time to make their cases before Election Day.
Georgia Senate Race Could Be Critical
Georgia offers a different situation because Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking another term.
Republican Rep. Mike Collins is challenging him.
Morris argued during his Newsmax appearance that Ossoff’s political positions are too liberal for Georgia voters.
That characterization reflects Morris’s political opinion. The election itself will determine how Georgia voters evaluate Ossoff’s record, Collins’ alternative and the issues shaping the campaign.
Georgia has been the site of several highly competitive statewide races in recent election cycles, helping make the 2026 Senate contest another closely watched battle.
New Hampshire Has Open Senate Seat
New Hampshire is also drawing national attention following Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek another term.
Former Republican Sen. John Sununu is running against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas for the open seat.
Morris believes New Hampshire is one of several places where Republicans could gain a Democratic-held Senate seat.
Open-seat races can be particularly important because neither party benefits from having an incumbent senator seeking reelection.
Morris Forecasts Republican Net Gain
After reviewing the major contests, Morris offered his overall prediction for the Senate.
He said Republicans could win two of the four Democratic-held seats he highlighted while retaining five of the six Republican-held seats discussed during the interview.
Under that scenario, Morris said Republicans would finish the election with a net gain of one or two Senate seats.
That remains a forecast rather than an established result.
The Senate map contains 35 seats scheduled for election in 2026: 22 currently held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats.
Although Republicans begin the campaign with the Senate majority, defending more seats means the party is competing across a wide geographic area.
Democrats, meanwhile, must both protect vulnerable seats and defeat Republicans elsewhere if they hope to take control of the chamber.
Battle for Senate Control Heads Into Final Weeks
With Election Day approaching, Senate races across the country are attracting increasing amounts of campaign spending and national attention.
Texas and North Carolina give Democrats opportunities to target Republican-held seats, while Republicans are concentrating on potential gains in states including Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Several factors could influence the final results, including voter turnout, candidate performance, campaign spending, economic concerns and developments in national politics between now and November.
For now, Morris believes the political landscape favors Republicans maintaining their Senate majority and possibly expanding it.
Whether his prediction proves correct will ultimately be determined by voters when they cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections.
