Democrat Leading In Key Race

A new poll out of Kansas is attracting attention after showing Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton separated by just two percentage points in the state’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, released September 18, found Hamilton receiving 45% support among likely Kansas voters, compared with 43% for Marshall. Libertarian candidate David Graham received 4%, while 8% remained undecided.

The difference between Hamilton and Marshall falls within the poll’s credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader.

Still, the results are notable in a state with a long history of Republican strength in federal elections.

Kansas Senate Race Draws New Attention

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since George McGill won in 1932.

Hamilton, the senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, is attempting to end that decades-long streak. Marshall, meanwhile, is seeking another term after first winning election to the Senate in 2020.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball pointed to independent voters as one factor behind the close numbers.

Among independents surveyed, Hamilton received 42% support compared with 27% for Marshall.

With 8% of likely voters still undecided, both campaigns have a substantial group of voters left to persuade before Election Day.

Independent Voters Are Splitting Their Tickets

One particularly interesting finding is that Kansas independents are not necessarily supporting the same political party in every statewide contest.

In the governor’s race, Republican Ty Masterson received 51% support overall, compared with 44% for Democrat Cindy Holscher. Six percent were undecided.

Among independent voters specifically, Masterson received 47% compared with Holscher’s 45%.

That contrasts with the Senate race, where Hamilton performed considerably better among independents.

The numbers suggest that at least some Kansas voters may be evaluating individual candidates separately rather than automatically supporting the same party across the ballot.

Libertarian Candidate Could Affect Senate Vote

Libertarian David Graham received support from 4% of likely voters in the Senate contest.

According to Emerson, Graham’s supporters backed Republican Ty Masterson over Holscher by 65% to 31% when asked about the governor’s race.

Kimball said the presence of the third-party candidate was having a different effect on the Senate contest than what researchers observed in the governor’s race.

With the major-party Senate candidates separated by only two percentage points in this particular survey, support for third-party candidates and undecided voters could receive increased attention during the final stretch of campaigning.

Marshall and Hamilton Have Equal Favorability Ratings

Marshall and Hamilton each received a 41% favorable rating in the Emerson poll.

Their unfavorable ratings, however, were different.

Marshall was viewed unfavorably by 48% of respondents. Hamilton had a 30% unfavorable rating, while 16% viewed him neutrally and 13% said they had not heard of him.

Hamilton’s lower name recognition means voter perceptions could still change as more Kansans become familiar with his candidacy.

Marshall enters the campaign with considerably greater statewide recognition because of his years in elected office.

Economy Is Far and Away the Top Issue

Economic concerns dominate the priorities of Kansas voters.

According to the poll, 48% identified the economy as the most important issue facing the state.

Healthcare was second at 14%, while threats to democracy and housing affordability each registered at 9%.

Education and immigration were each named by 6% of respondents.

Those results indicate that kitchen-table financial concerns could play a major role in the campaign.

For many households, questions surrounding inflation, grocery prices, energy costs, taxes, retirement savings and healthcare expenses are likely to remain important as voters evaluate candidates.

Agriculture is another major consideration in Kansas, where federal policies involving trade, energy and farm programs can have significant economic consequences for rural communities.

Trump’s Approval Rating Among Kansas Voters

The poll also measured how Kansas likely voters view President Donald Trump.

Trump received a 40% job approval rating, while 53% said they disapproved of his performance.

Kansas Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly had a 46% approval rating, while 39% disapproved.

Those numbers provide additional evidence that voters in the survey were not responding solely according to traditional party affiliation.

Governor’s Race Shows Different Picture

While the Senate numbers were close, the governor’s race showed a larger gap.

Masterson received 51%, compared with 44% for Holscher and 6% who remained undecided.

Masterson had a 40% favorable rating and 44% unfavorable rating.

Holscher registered 38% favorable and 35% unfavorable, while 15% viewed her neutrally and 12% had not heard of her.

The difference between the Senate and gubernatorial contests highlights how candidate-specific factors can influence statewide elections.

What the Kansas Poll Actually Means

Political polls are snapshots of voter opinion at a particular moment. They are not guarantees of future election results.

Emerson College Polling surveyed 750 likely Kansas voters from September 15 through September 16, 2026.

The survey reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Data was weighted according to gender, education, race, age and region using U.S. Census parameters and voter-file information.

Respondents were contacted through text messages directing them to online questionnaires, while additional interviews came from an online panel.

Emerson cautioned that demographic subgroup results carry larger credibility intervals because they contain smaller numbers of respondents.

That limitation is especially important when examining results involving independents or other individual voter groups.

Kansas Could Remain a Closely Watched Senate Race

The Emerson survey gives both parties reasons to pay attention to Kansas as the campaign continues.

Marshall has the advantages that come with incumbency and represents a party with a long record of success in Kansas federal elections.

Hamilton, meanwhile, is polling competitively in this particular survey and performing strongly among independents.

The most important takeaway is that the poll shows a statistically close contest rather than establishing who will ultimately win.

With the economy ranking as the overwhelming top concern, the coming campaign is likely to focus heavily on jobs, inflation, healthcare, agriculture, taxes and the overall cost of living.

How Kansas voters judge those issues—and how the remaining undecided voters ultimately make their decisions—will help determine the direction of the Senate contest.