Talarico Still In The Lead

The race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat is drawing national attention after a new poll showed Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton separated by just three percentage points.

A Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey found Talarico receiving 46% support among registered Texas voters, while Paxton received 43%. Libertarian Ted Brown stood at 3%, and 8% of respondents remained undecided.

While Talarico holds the numerical advantage in the survey, the three-point difference falls within the poll’s approximately four-percentage-point margin of error. That means the results are best viewed as evidence of a close contest rather than proof that either candidate has established a decisive advantage.

The race will determine who succeeds Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the Republican runoff.

Texas Senate Race Draws Attention in 2026 Midterms

Texas has long been an important state for Republicans in federal elections. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, making the competitiveness of the 2026 contest particularly notable.

The Cook Political Report currently categorizes the race as a “Toss Up,” reflecting the competitive nature of the contest.

With control of the U.S. Senate an important part of the broader 2026 midterm elections, both parties and outside political organizations have reasons to pay close attention to Texas.

Independent Voters Stand Out in New Texas Poll

One of the most striking findings in the Telemundo/Mason-Dixon survey involves independent voters.

Talarico received support from 51% of independents surveyed, compared with 30% for Paxton. Another 13% of independent voters remained undecided.

The survey also showed substantial differences among demographic groups.

Talarico led Paxton by 18 percentage points among Hispanic voters and by 75 points among Black voters. Paxton, meanwhile, held an 18-point advantage among white voters.

Those numbers illustrate the different coalitions supporting the candidates as they compete for votes across one of America’s largest and most politically important states.

Economy and Inflation Are Major Concerns for Texas Voters

The Senate contest is unfolding as many voters remain focused on their household finances.

According to the poll, 24% of respondents identified economic factors as the issue most likely to determine their vote.

Another 23% selected inflation and the cost of living, while 18% identified immigration.

The findings put pocketbook concerns near the center of the Texas Senate campaign.

For households managing expenses such as groceries, housing, utilities, healthcare and transportation, changes in prices can have an immediate effect on monthly budgets. These concerns can be especially significant for retirees and other Americans living on fixed incomes.

As a result, the candidates’ competing approaches to the economy, federal spending, taxes, energy, healthcare and immigration are likely to remain prominent subjects during the campaign.

Millions Flow Into Texas Senate Contest

The competitive race is also attracting significant outside political spending.

Elon Musk’s America PAC and President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. have reportedly committed millions of dollars to efforts supporting Paxton or opposing Talarico.

A substantial portion of that spending has reportedly gone toward advertising criticizing Talarico.

Outside spending can dramatically expand the number of political advertisements voters see during a major statewide campaign, particularly as Election Day approaches.

Texas is also an especially expensive state for political advertising because campaigns and outside organizations must reach voters across several major metropolitan areas and media markets.

Why the Texas Senate Race Matters

The Texas contest carries significance beyond the two candidates themselves.

Every Senate seat can affect the balance of power in Washington, including which party controls Senate committees and how easily a presidential administration can advance nominations and legislative priorities.

That broader national significance helps explain why political organizations are investing heavily in the state.

At the same time, Texas voters are weighing issues much closer to home, including inflation, wages, housing costs, immigration and the overall direction of the economy.

What the New Poll Actually Tells Us

Poll results should always be interpreted with appropriate caution.

The Telemundo/Mason-Dixon survey questioned 625 registered Texas voters from Sept. 8 through Sept. 10 and reported a margin of error of approximately four percentage points.

Because Talarico’s 46% support and Paxton’s 43% support are separated by only three points, the difference falls within that stated margin of error.

Polling can also change as undecided voters make their choices, campaigns increase advertising and new political or economic developments influence public opinion.

For that reason, one survey should be considered alongside other polling rather than treated as a prediction of the election result.

Texas Could Remain a Major 2026 Political Battleground

The latest numbers show why the Texas Senate race is receiving increased attention heading into the closing stretch of the 2026 midterm campaign.

Talarico holds a narrow numerical advantage in this particular survey, while Paxton is seeking to keep a Senate seat in Republican hands in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate election in nearly four decades.

Meanwhile, economic concerns remain prominent among voters, millions of dollars are flowing into political advertising, and a portion of the electorate remains undecided.

With Election Day approaching, the contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is positioned to remain one of the closely watched U.S. Senate races of the 2026 election cycle.