Texas Race Gets Red Hot

The battle for Texas’ critical Senate seat is becoming one of the most closely watched political fights in America — and new polling numbers are raising serious concerns for Republicans heading into November.

Recent surveys suggest Democrat James Talarico could be more competitive than many conservatives expected against either Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton or longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who are locked in a bitter GOP runoff battle next week.

The increasingly expensive showdown between Paxton and Cornyn has exposed growing tensions inside the Republican Party, while Democrats hope the division could give them an opening in a state Republicans have dominated for decades.

Polls Show Surprisingly Tight Race in Texas

A new survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found both Republican candidates essentially tied with Talarico in hypothetical general election matchups.

In a three-way race including Libertarian Ted Brown, Cornyn received 45% support from likely voters while Talarico followed closely behind at 44%.

The numbers were equally tight when Paxton was tested against the Democrat. Both candidates earned 45% support, according to the survey.

Other recent polls painted an even more troubling picture for Republicans.

A poll conducted by University of Texas at Austin showed Talarico leading Cornyn by seven points and holding an eight-point advantage over Paxton.

Another survey from Texas Public Opinion Research also showed the Democrat ahead against both Republican candidates.

While Republicans still hold a slight edge overall, many conservatives are increasingly warning that internal GOP warfare could weaken the party heading into the general election.

Trump Throws Full Support Behind Paxton

The race took a dramatic turn when President Donald Trump officially endorsed Paxton on May 19.

Trump’s endorsement immediately energized the MAGA base and intensified pressure on Cornyn, who has long been viewed as part of the Republican establishment in Washington.

President Donald Trump praised Ken Paxton on social media as a loyal supporter of the MAGA movement, saying he has consistently fought for Texas conservatives and would continue advancing those priorities in the U.S. Senate.

Paxton has positioned himself as a strong America First conservative and a fighter against the political establishment, while Cornyn has argued that his experience and electability make him the safer choice for Republicans trying to hold the seat.

Despite supporting much of Trump’s agenda during his years in the Senate, Cornyn has struggled to fully connect with grassroots conservatives who increasingly want more aggressive leadership in Washington.

Millions Spent in Bitter Republican Showdown

The Texas runoff has become one of the most expensive Republican primaries in the country.

According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Cornyn’s campaign and allied super PACs are expected to spend more than $87 million on advertising by this week alone.

Much of that spending has focused on attacking Paxton rather than targeting Democrats.

Some Republican strategists worry the prolonged battle is draining resources that could be needed in other key Senate races nationwide as Democrats continue pushing aggressively to expand their influence in Congress.

Betting Markets Still Favor Republicans — But Barely

Prediction markets still give Republicans a narrow advantage in holding the Texas Senate seat, though the margins are tighter than many expected in a traditionally red state.

The regulated prediction platform Kalshi currently gives Republicans roughly a 55% chance of keeping the seat, compared to 45% for Talarico.

Crypto-based betting platform Polymarket reportedly shows similar odds.

That narrow margin highlights growing uncertainty about the political climate heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Democrats See Opportunity as GOP Divisions Grow

Talarico has attempted to portray both Republican candidates as representatives of wealthy political insiders and establishment interests.

Talarico argued that the outcome of the Republican runoff would not change his campaign’s focus, saying Democrats are ultimately fighting against wealthy political donors and what he described as a deeply flawed system driven by big-money influence.

Still, many conservatives believe Texas voters will ultimately rally behind the Republican nominee once the primary battle ends — especially with President Trump now directly involved in the race.

The outcome could have major consequences not only for Texas, but also for the future direction of the Republican Party nationwide.