Paxton Leading In Key Race
With Texas Republicans preparing to vote in the 2026 primary election, the battle for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination has intensified.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton currently holds a measurable edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, while U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt continues to consolidate support among younger conservatives.
Multiple new polls suggest the race remains competitive — and increasingly likely to head to a runoff election.
Latest Texas GOP Primary Polls: Who Is Leading?
Recent surveys of likely Republican primary voters show Paxton ahead, though short of the 50% threshold required to avoid a second round.
Quantus Insights Poll (939 likely GOP voters):
- Ken Paxton: 43%
- John Cornyn: 37.6%
- Wesley Hunt: 15.7%
- Undecided: 3.8%
Notably, 86% of respondents say they are firmly committed, signaling limited room for last-minute changes.
A University of Texas poll shows a narrower margin:
- Paxton: 36%
- Cornyn: 34%
Meanwhile, the Hobby School of Public Affairs survey (Jan. 20–31) reports:
- Paxton: 38%
- Cornyn: 31%
- Hunt: 17%
- Undecided: 12%
Across all major surveys, the trend is consistent: Paxton leads, Cornyn trails closely, and Hunt remains a factor.
Texas Election Law: Why a Runoff Appears Likely
Under Texas election law, a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote to secure the nomination outright.
Because no candidate is polling near that majority threshold, political analysts widely expect a May runoff between the top two finishers.
In projected runoff matchups:
- Paxton vs. Cornyn: 51% to 40%
- Paxton vs. Hunt: 56% to 33%
- Cornyn vs. Hunt: 46% to 39%
If those numbers hold, Paxton would enter a second round with momentum.
Generational Divide Among Texas Republican Voters
Polling data reveals a notable age gap within the Texas GOP electorate.
Voters aged 65 and older — who account for roughly 72% of likely Republican primary voters — show Paxton and Cornyn running nearly even.
However, among voters under 65, Paxton holds a double-digit advantage.
Hunt performs strongest among younger Republicans:
- 26% support among voters 18–29
- Over 22% among voters 30–44
While Hunt remains in third place overall, his base could play a decisive role in shaping a runoff scenario.
Trump’s Influence on the Texas Senate Race
Former President Donald Trump continues to enjoy overwhelming support among Texas Republican voters, receiving nearly 90% favorability in the Hobby School survey.
The current political environment seems to work to Paxton’s advantage, as he has positioned himself in strong alignment with the America First agenda and the key policy goals associated with President Trump.
Among self-identified MAGA voters — who represent more than half of the GOP primary electorate — Paxton leads Cornyn by nearly three to one.
Cornyn’s support remains strongest among more traditional, establishment-leaning Republicans, a demographic that represents a smaller share of today’s primary base.
What This Means for Texas Republicans
As primary day approaches, Ken Paxton enters with a clear advantage — but not a majority.
With high voter commitment levels and strong turnout expectations, the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary could reshape the direction of the state’s GOP for years to come.
If no candidate surpasses 50%, Texas voters will likely return to the polls in May for a decisive runoff election.
For now, momentum favors Paxton — but the final outcome may hinge on turnout, consolidation of support, and whether undecided voters break late.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Texas Senate Primary
Who is leading in the Texas Republican Senate primary?
Recent polls show Ken Paxton holding a narrow lead over John Cornyn, with Wesley Hunt in third place.
Will there be a runoff election?
Likely yes. Texas law requires more than 50% of the vote to win outright, and no candidate is currently polling above that threshold.
How popular is Donald Trump among Texas Republican voters?
Polling shows Trump with nearly 90% favorability among likely GOP primary voters, making his influence significant in the race.
