Rising Democrat Expected To Win

The 2026 Texas Senate race is already drawing national attention, and veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove is making headlines with an unexpected prediction about the Democratic primary.

Appearing on Fox News, Rove suggested that Texas state Rep. James Talarico may have a stronger path to victory than Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic contest to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

With control of the U.S. Senate potentially at stake in 2026, this race could become one of the most closely watched political battles in the country.

Why Polling in Texas Can Be Misleading

Rove emphasized that primary polling in Texas is notoriously unreliable. Unlike many states, Texas does not require party registration. Voters can choose which primary to participate in, making it difficult to predict turnout among likely Democratic voters.

Recent polls have shown Crockett leading Talarico by margins ranging from a single point to double digits. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey showed Crockett ahead 56% to 44%.

However, Rove noted that many of those polls were conducted before a recent media controversy involving late-night host Stephen Colbert. Talarico reportedly gained significant online visibility after CBS allegedly declined to air his appearance — a development that may have boosted his name recognition among Democratic voters.

“If I were a betting man,” Rove said, “I’d bet on Talarico.”

That comment alone has intensified interest in the Democratic primary.

The Stakes: Sen. John Cornyn’s Seat

At the center of this political showdown is the Senate seat currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who has represented Texas since 2002 and remains a key voice within the GOP.

Cornyn recently warned that if Democrats were to flip his seat, it could signal “the first crack in the red wall” that has defined Texas statewide elections for decades.

Texas has long been considered a Republican stronghold, but Democrats continue investing heavily in hopes of demographic shifts and urban turnout gains.

The outcome of the Democratic primary will determine which candidate Republicans face in November — and how competitive the race could become.

Democrats’ Struggles in Statewide Texas Elections

Despite heavy fundraising and national media support, Democrats have consistently fallen short in statewide Texas contests.

Many voters still recall former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate challenge against Sen. Ted Cruz. While O’Rourke generated significant enthusiasm, Cruz ultimately prevailed — reinforcing the state’s conservative foundation.

Since then, Democrats have targeted Texas repeatedly but have yet to secure a major statewide breakthrough.

Older voters — particularly those 50 and above — continue to play a decisive role in statewide outcomes, often prioritizing issues such as border security, economic stability, and law enforcement support.

National Issues Could Shape the Race

Heading into the 2026 midterms, Republicans are navigating several high-profile national issues:

• Persistent concerns about inflation and affordability
• Ongoing debate over immigration enforcement and border policy
• Media scrutiny surrounding documents connected to Jeffrey Epstein
• Broader political tensions as President Trump advances his policy agenda

How these issues resonate with Texas voters — especially independent and suburban voters — could shape both the primary and general election landscape.

What This Means for Republicans

While Texas remains reliably Republican, political observers understand that no race can be taken for granted.

If Rove’s prediction proves accurate and Talarico emerges as the Democratic nominee, Republicans will quickly pivot to define him on key policy positions. If Crockett prevails, GOP strategists are likely to focus on her congressional voting record and national Democratic alignment.

Either way, the Texas Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most important contests of the 2026 election cycle.

For now, the Democratic primary is the first hurdle — and according to Karl Rove, it may not play out the way early polls suggest.