Is Trump losing his grip on the GOP?
President Donald Trump remains the most powerful force in Republican politics, but new polling data suggests that some longtime GOP voters are sending a clear message as the nation approaches the critical 2026 midterm elections.
Several recent national surveys indicate growing unease inside the Republican Party, including among voters who once strongly identified with the Make America Great Again movement. While Trump still commands loyalty from millions of Americans, cracks are beginning to show—particularly on the economy and immigration enforcement.
For Republicans hoping to hold Congress in 2026, these warning signs are impossible to ignore.
Shift Inside the GOP Base Raises Eyebrows
A recent survey conducted by NBC News shows a noticeable change in how Republicans describe their political identity.
Earlier this year, a solid majority of GOP voters said they aligned more closely with the MAGA movement than with the traditional Republican Party. That advantage has now disappeared.
In the latest polling, Republicans are evenly divided—half identifying with MAGA and half saying they relate more to the broader GOP. For party strategists, that split signals internal tension as voters turn their attention away from presidential politics and toward congressional leadership.
Trump’s overall approval rating also dipped slightly during this same period, though the former president has repeatedly dismissed mainstream polling as biased and misleading.
Immigration Enforcement Sparks Internal Debate
Immigration has long been one of Trump’s strongest issues with conservative voters, but even here, polls suggest rising debate inside the party.
A new study from the Pew Research Center found that a growing minority of Republicans believe the administration’s deportation efforts may be going too far.
While most GOP voters still support strict border security and deportations, the share expressing concern has increased since earlier this year. The shift is particularly pronounced among Hispanic Republicans, where skepticism nearly doubled in just a few months.
The White House has pushed back, emphasizing that Trump was elected on a promise to restore border security and enforce immigration law—especially when it comes to illegal immigrants with criminal records.
Economic Anxiety Weighs Heavily on Older Voters
Perhaps the most concerning signal for Republicans is growing voter anxiety over the economy.
A recent Reuters / Ipsos survey found that Trump’s approval rating on economic management fell to its lowest point of the year among the general public.
Even within the GOP, support slipped modestly. While still strong overall, the decline suggests persistent worries about inflation, grocery prices, gas costs, and retirement security—issues that resonate deeply with voters over 50.
The administration has argued that Trump inherited historic inflation from the Biden years and has already made progress bringing price growth under control. Trump himself has blasted what he calls “fake polls” pushed by left-leaning media, insisting everyday Americans see improvement firsthand.
Experts Say 2026 Will Be Won on the Economy
Political analysts warn that midterm elections are rarely about personality—and almost always about pocketbooks.
One political scientist told Newsweek that frustration over the economy may be spilling into broader dissatisfaction with Washington leadership. Another expert noted that if economic conditions fail to improve before next fall, Republican congressional candidates could face unexpected headwinds—even with Trump energizing the base.
A High-Stakes Test for Republicans
Although Trump will not appear on the ballot in 2026, his influence will loom large over every competitive race.
With approval numbers softening and divisions emerging within the GOP coalition, party leaders are quietly reassessing messaging and campaign strategy—especially when it comes to older, reliable voters who dominate midterm turnout.
Whether this moment becomes a temporary warning or a lasting problem will depend on three key factors: economic performance, border security results, and Republican unity.
One thing is clear: the next year may determine not only control of Congress, but the direction of the Republican Party heading toward 2028.
