GOP Cruising To Easy Victory?

With less than 48 hours before ballots are counted in Tennessee’s high-stakes 7th Congressional District special election, Republican candidate Matt Van Epps — strongly endorsed by President Donald Trump — continues to hold a narrow but important lead.

A new Emerson College Poll released over the weekend shows Van Epps ahead 48% to 46% over Democrat state Rep. Aftyn Behn, with 2% supporting minor candidates.

⭐ A Deep-Red District With National Implications

Tennessee’s 7th District is no ordinary race. This is a Trump +60 district, a region that has elected Republicans for more than 50 years. A Democrat victory would send shockwaves through Washington and hand the Left a symbolic — and strategic — win.

And that matters because the GOP House majority is already razor-thin. When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation becomes official on January 5, the Republican margin shrinks to 218–213.

If Democrats flip this seat, the advantage becomes 217–214, giving Speaker Mike Johnson almost no room for error on crucial votes.

This is why both national parties are watching Tennessee — and why turnout from conservative, older, America First voters is essential.

⭐ Concerns Over Conservative Turnout — But Trump Still Commands Strong Support

Some Tennessee Republicans worry that low turnout among core MAGA voters could allow Democrats to steal the seat. One former GOP officeholder claimed Trump’s numbers dipped after the government shutdown — but the new poll tells a different story.

Trump still holds a 47% approval rating in the district. That’s lower than his 2024 performance, but it is far from the doom-and-gloom narrative pushed by Democrats.

There is also speculation that some voters who supported conservative state Rep. Jody Barrett in the primary remain frustrated after national groups and Club for Growth spent heavily to boost Van Epps. Barrett was a favorite among Freedom Caucus-style conservatives, and his supporters believe outside interference cost him the race.

Even so, Trump is pushing hard to unite the Republican base.

⭐ Trump Issues Urgent Call: “America First Patriots Must GET OUT AND VOTE!”

On Sunday night, President Trump posted a direct message on Truth Social aimed at energizing conservative voters:

“Every America First supporter in Tennessee’s 7th District who hasn’t voted yet — make sure you get to the polls.”

Trump’s endorsement remains the most influential asset in the district, especially among older Republican voters who strongly support his America First agenda.

⭐ Aftyn Behn’s Controversial Comments Re-Emerge Before Election Day

As the final hours approach, several troubling moments from Aftyn Behn’s past are resurfacing — and they’re raising eyebrows among traditional Tennessee voters.

🔹 Behn said she’s “uncomfortable” with prayer in the Legislature.

She openly stated she is “more secular” and dislikes religion being part of public life — a stance that does not align with Tennessee’s deeply Christian electorate.

🔹 Video shows Behn leading a disruptive protest at Gov. Bill Lee’s office.

In 2019, Behn was forcibly removed from the building. The footage shows her screaming loudly as officers escorted her out.

🔹 Trump warns voters of Behn’s radical agenda.

On Truth Social, Trump wrote that Behn:

• “hates Christianity”
• “will take away your guns”
• “wants Open Borders”
• “supports transgender policies for everyone”
• “supports men in women’s sports”
• “disdains Country music”

Trump emphasized these statements are documented:

“She said all of these things — IT’S ON TAPE!”

⭐ Bottom Line: Turnout Will Decide the Election

If conservative voters, especially older America First supporters, turn out strongly, Matt Van Epps is well-positioned to protect Tennessee’s 7th District and maintain the GOP majority in Congress.

If they stay home, Democrats could pull off an upset.

President Trump was blunt:

“Do not take this race for granted.”