Republicans Trying To Flip New York Red
The race for New York governor in 2026 is heating up fast — and Democrats may have every reason to worry.
Congressman Mike Lawler (R-NY) revealed on national television Friday that he’s close to making a decision about launching a high-profile campaign to unseat Governor Kathy Hochul (D). Lawler, a rising star in the Republican Party, made clear that a final announcement is just “weeks” away.
Lawler represents New York’s 17th Congressional District — a critical battleground for both parties. His potential run signals that Republicans are serious about flipping the state after years of Democrat control, soaring crime, and economic decline.
But Lawler isn’t the only one gearing up.
🔥 Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) — a strong supporter of President Trump — is widely expected to enter the race. According to The Hill, Stefanik is already laying the groundwork for her campaign and will announce her candidacy on her own terms.
“It’s not a matter of if — it’s when,” one source close to Stefanik said. “She’s preparing for a statewide fight.”
Stefanik had previously been nominated by Trump for a major diplomatic post, but withdrew after setting her sights on turning New York red.
Can Republicans Beat Hochul?
Despite holding the governor’s mansion since 2022, Gov. Hochul is struggling to connect with voters in many parts of the state. A recent Siena College poll shows her leading Stefanik, Lawler, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 20+ points in hypothetical matchups — but insiders say that lead is soft.
President Donald Trump already endorsed Lawler and Blakeman for reelection earlier this year. His support carries serious weight, especially after his strong 2024 performance in New York — narrowing Biden’s lead to just 12 points, compared to a 23-point gap in 2020.
📉 Under Hochul’s leadership, New York has seen:
- Rising violent crime
- Record-setting outmigration
- Tax hikes on seniors and families
- Sanctuary city policies driving costs through the roof
Many conservative voters believe 2026 could be the best shot in decades to take back the state.
Cook Political Report still ranks the race as “Likely Democrat,” but growing backlash against left-wing policies could tip the balance — especially if Stefanik or Lawler gain national fundraising support and Trump’s full backing.
Republicans are energized, the field is forming, and the momentum is building.
