Here’s what happened.
President Donald Trump and the Republican Party spent years making unexpected gains with Latino voters, challenging the long-standing assumption that Democrats could count on overwhelming support from the influential voting bloc.
Now, with the 2026 midterm elections approaching, new polling suggests Republicans may be facing a significant political challenge.
A national NBC News/Telemundo survey found that dissatisfaction with Trump has increased among registered Latino voters, particularly on the economy, cost of living and immigration enforcement.
The findings could become increasingly important as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of Congress in November.
New Poll Shows Trouble for Trump Among Latino Voters
The survey questioned 800 registered Latino voters nationwide between September 21 and September 28.
According to the results, 69% said they disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, while 27% said they approve.
The poll also found widespread concern about two major issues dominating national politics.
Approximately 66% of respondents said Trump’s deportation policies have gone too far, while 75% expressed dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and cost of living.
Those numbers could serve as a warning for Republicans because economic concerns have consistently ranked among the most important issues for American voters.
For families dealing with higher prices for groceries, housing, insurance, utilities and other necessities, political debates in Washington often take a back seat to a much simpler question: Is life becoming more affordable?
That question could play a major role in determining which party controls Congress after the midterm elections.
Democrats Open Large Lead in Congressional Preference
The poll delivered another potentially concerning result for Republicans.
When respondents were asked which party they would prefer to control Congress, 59% selected Democrats, while 35% chose Republicans.
That gives Democrats a 24-point advantage among Latino voters in the survey.
The result represents a noticeable shift from the political environment surrounding the 2024 election, when Republicans made substantial progress with Latino voters.
Going into that election, Democrats held a significantly smaller advantage with the demographic.
The newest numbers therefore suggest Republicans have surrendered at least some of the momentum they previously gained.
However, the longer-term trend tells a more complicated story.
Republicans Still Stronger Than a Decade Ago
Despite the latest polling, Republicans continue to perform considerably better with Latino voters than they did during earlier election cycles.
In 2016, Republican support for controlling Congress stood at roughly 21% among Latino voters.
By 2018, that figure had increased to approximately 26%.
The latest survey puts Republican support at 35%.
That means the GOP remains significantly more competitive with Latino voters than it was a decade ago, even if Democrats have recently regained some ground.
This is an important distinction because Latino voters are increasingly viewed as a competitive part of the American electorate rather than a permanently reliable voting bloc for either party.
Political preferences can differ significantly depending on region, income, age, occupation, immigration background and economic circumstances.
Republicans have especially focused on working-class voters and communities concerned about inflation, jobs, public safety, education and border security.
Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping dissatisfaction with the current administration will help rebuild their advantage.
Cost of Living Could Become a Major Midterm Issue
The economic portion of the poll may ultimately matter more than any individual political controversy.
Americans continue to closely watch the prices they pay for food, housing, energy, healthcare and transportation.
For many voters, those everyday expenses shape their opinion of the economy more strongly than statistics coming from Washington.
That creates both an opportunity and a problem for the party in power.
If voters believe their personal finances are improving before Election Day, Republicans could regain support.
If households continue feeling financial pressure, Democrats are likely to make the cost of living a central campaign issue.
For Trump, the challenge will be convincing skeptical voters that his economic policies are producing results that will eventually reach American households.
Immigration Policies Also Face Scrutiny
Immigration remains another major issue heading into the midterms.
Trump returned to office promising stricter enforcement of federal immigration laws and a tougher approach to illegal immigration.
Those policies remain popular with substantial portions of the Republican base.
However, the NBC News/Telemundo poll suggests many Latino voters believe the administration’s deportation strategy has become too aggressive.
That creates a difficult balancing act for Republicans.
Trump and GOP candidates want to maintain support from voters demanding stronger border enforcement while also persuading Latino voters that immigration policies are being implemented fairly.
How Republicans communicate that message could have consequences in several competitive congressional districts.
Trump Pushes Back Against Negative Polling
Trump has dismissed unfavorable polling and argued that traditional surveys often underestimate the enthusiasm surrounding his political movement.
During a campaign rally in Dayton, Ohio, Trump told supporters that polling fails to fully account for the impact he can have when actively campaigning for Republican candidates.
He pointed to previous elections in which his supporters exceeded expectations and argued that Republicans could do so again.
The president’s involvement could become one of the defining factors of the 2026 midterms.
Trump remains the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and GOP candidates across the country are counting on him to motivate conservative voters who might otherwise stay home during a non-presidential election year.
The central question is whether Trump’s popularity with his core supporters can translate into victories for Republican congressional candidates.
Can Trump Beat the Midterm Curse?
History presents another challenge.
The party controlling the White House frequently loses congressional seats during midterm elections.
Voters often use midterms as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with the sitting administration, regardless of which political party holds power.
Trump is attempting to break that pattern.
His strategy appears centered on making the midterms feel less like a collection of local congressional races and more like another national referendum on his broader political agenda.
If that strategy succeeds, Republican turnout could outperform expectations.
If it fails, Democrats may have an opening to capture control of the House.
Battle for the House Grows More Competitive
Current congressional projections already show Republicans facing a difficult path.
Fox News Power Rankings currently project Democrats winning 215 House seats compared with 201 for Republicans, with another 19 races classified as toss-ups.
A party needs 218 seats to control the House.
Under those projections, Democrats would need to win only three additional toss-up races to secure a majority.
Republicans would need to win at least 17.
That makes nearly every competitive district important.
A relatively small shift among independents, suburban voters, Latino voters or working-class voters could determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
Polls Are Snapshots, Not Election Results
There is another important factor to remember.
Polls measure voter opinion at a specific moment in time.
They do not predict the future with certainty.
Campaigns can shift rapidly because of economic developments, major news events, candidate performances, debates, turnout operations and changing voter priorities.
The NBC News/Telemundo survey reports a margin of error of approximately 3.5 percentage points.
Republicans therefore still have time to improve their position before Election Day.
Democrats also face their own challenge: converting favorable polling into actual turnout.
Strong survey numbers mean little if supporters do not vote.
Latino Voters Could Help Decide Control of Congress
The growing political competition for Latino voters could have consequences far beyond one demographic group.
Latino communities represent a significant share of the electorate in states including Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada and California, along with increasingly competitive communities across other parts of the country.
Both political parties understand that winning even a modest additional share of these voters could change the outcome of close congressional races.
Republicans will likely emphasize economic growth, border security, public safety and traditional values.
Democrats are expected to focus heavily on affordability, healthcare, immigration enforcement and criticism of the Trump administration.
The battle could become one of the most important political stories of the midterm election.
Trump’s Political Coalition Faces a New Test
One of Trump’s biggest political achievements has been expanding Republican support beyond the party’s traditional coalition.
Working-class voters, minority voters and Americans without four-year college degrees have all become increasingly important to the modern GOP.
That transformation helped Trump reshape American politics.
But political coalitions are never permanent.
The latest Latino polling suggests Republicans will have to continue earning the support of voters who moved toward the party in recent elections.
Economic conditions could be especially decisive.
If voters believe prices are becoming more manageable and their personal finances are improving, Republican support could recover.
If frustration with the cost of living remains high, Democrats may have an opportunity to regain voters they previously lost.
The Midterms Will Provide the Real Answer
For now, the new survey represents a warning sign for Trump and Republican leaders — not a final verdict.
The president has repeatedly argued that his political movement performs better when supporters are motivated and he is personally campaigning.
Republicans will soon find out whether that remains true.
Democrats believe the political environment is moving in their direction.
Republicans believe Trump can once again defy expectations.
With control of Congress at stake, Latino voters could help determine which side is right.
And that makes the 2026 midterm elections one of the biggest tests yet of Trump’s winning political formula.
