Democrat Tied Against Trump Endorsed Graham?

A new campaign poll is giving Democrats hope that they could pull off a major upset in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states — but there is an important reason to approach the numbers with caution.

South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Annie Andrews released an internal survey Tuesday showing her tied with Republican Sen. Darline Graham at 41% each.

That result would represent a dramatic departure from South Carolina’s recent political history. President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points, and Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election there since 1998.

But the poll was commissioned by Andrews’ own campaign and conducted by Impact Research, a firm that works with Democratic candidates and organizations.

That distinction could prove important as both parties assess whether South Carolina’s 2026 Senate race is truly becoming competitive.

Internal Poll Shows South Carolina Senate Race Tied

The Impact Research survey found Andrews and Graham deadlocked at 41%.

Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener received 5%, while another 13% of likely voters said they were undecided.

The poll surveyed 700 likely South Carolina voters from Aug. 18 through Aug. 24 using online and text-to-web methods. It reported an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

One of the most striking findings involved independent voters.

According to the campaign’s poll, Andrews led Graham among independents by 33 percentage points on the initial ballot question.

That would be an important advantage if it were reflected in the broader electorate, particularly with neither major-party candidate reaching 50% in the survey.

Andrews Takes Lead After Voters Learn More

Impact Research also tested what happened after respondents were presented with favorable biographical information about both candidates.

Andrews then moved into the lead, receiving 44% compared with Graham’s 39%.

Her reported advantage among independent voters expanded to 39 percentage points.

The Democratic campaign’s pollster interpreted those numbers as evidence that Andrews could consolidate her party’s voters while attracting substantial support from the political center.

There is another way to view the results, however.

Because respondents were given additional information before being asked again about their preferences, the second result should not necessarily be interpreted the same way as a standard head-to-head ballot test.

The initial 41%-41% result therefore provides the cleaner snapshot of where the campaign’s own poll says the race currently stands.

Graham Faces Troubling Favorability Numbers in Democratic Poll

The survey also contained warning signs for Graham.

Andrews registered a statewide favorability rating of 36%, compared with 21% who viewed her unfavorably.

Among independent voters, the poll showed Andrews with a net favorability rating of plus 24.

Graham received considerably weaker numbers.

According to the Andrews campaign’s survey, 31% of voters viewed the Republican senator favorably, while 49% had an unfavorable opinion of her.

Her numbers among independents were particularly poor, with the survey placing her net favorability at minus 47.

The poll even suggested some dissatisfaction among Republicans. Graham received favorable marks from 53% of GOP respondents, while 32% viewed her unfavorably.

Impact Research pointed to those numbers as evidence that Graham could have vulnerabilities within her own political base.

One Major Caveat Surrounds the Poll

For voters following the South Carolina Senate election, the source of the numbers matters.

Impact Research was hired by the Andrews campaign, and the firm regularly conducts research for Democratic candidates and causes.

Internal campaign polls can provide useful information, but they should not automatically be treated as equivalent to independent public polling.

Campaigns decide which internal surveys they release publicly, and favorable results can be used to generate media coverage, energize supporters and persuade donors that a race deserves additional money.

That appears particularly relevant in South Carolina.

The polling memo explicitly argues that the Senate contest deserves national investment and suggests Andrews could potentially pull off a significant upset with sufficient resources.

In other words, the poll isn’t merely measuring the race. Its public release could also help Democrats make the case for pouring more money into it.

Democrats See Opportunity for Major South Carolina Upset

The timing makes that fundraising argument especially important.

With Election Day roughly 10 weeks away, campaigns are entering the period when advertising, voter outreach and national financial support can become increasingly important.

Impact Research argues that South Carolina should not be dismissed as another impossible red-state contest.

If independent polling eventually produces numbers similar to the Andrews campaign’s survey, national Democrats could face pressure to devote additional resources to the state.

But if independent surveys show Graham with a substantial advantage, the internal poll could instead prove to be an outlier.

That makes future polling especially important.

Who Is Sen. Darline Graham?

Graham entered the Senate following the death of her brother, longtime Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to the vacant seat on July 13, and she was sworn into office the following day.

Her appointment made history, as Graham became the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.

But receiving the appointment did not guarantee her the Republican nomination for a full term.

Graham faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a competitive GOP runoff and prevailed on Aug. 25 by approximately 52% to 48%.

President Trump personally became involved in the Republican contest, traveling to Myrtle Beach to campaign for Graham.

Her relatively narrow victory over Norman, combined with the favorability numbers contained in Andrews’ internal poll, will likely fuel Democratic arguments that the Republican nominee is more vulnerable than South Carolina’s political history would normally suggest.

Who Is Annie Andrews?

Andrews is a Charleston pediatrician who spent approximately 15 years working at the Medical University of South Carolina.

She has previously sought federal office.

In 2022, Andrews challenged Republican Rep. Nancy Mace for a U.S. House seat but lost the race.

Four years later, Andrews returned to the campaign trail with her sights set on the Senate and secured the Democratic nomination in June.

Her campaign now faces the much larger challenge of convincing South Carolina voters to break a Republican winning streak stretching back decades.

South Carolina Remains Tough Territory for Democrats

Despite the eye-catching polling numbers, South Carolina’s political history remains the biggest obstacle confronting Andrews.

Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in the state since 1998.

Republicans have dominated statewide federal races for years, and Trump’s nearly 18-point victory demonstrates the size of the GOP’s recent advantage.

That makes a 41%-41% Senate race remarkable — assuming subsequent independent polling confirms it.

And that is the critical question.

A single internal survey financed by one of the campaigns is not enough to establish that a traditionally Republican state has suddenly become a toss-up.

At the same time, Graham cannot simply dismiss the numbers if additional polling begins showing the same trend.

What Happens Next Could Tell the Real Story

The next round of independent South Carolina Senate polling may be considerably more revealing than the Andrews campaign’s internal numbers.

If outside pollsters also find a single-digit race, Republicans could find themselves forced to spend time and money defending a Senate seat they would normally expect to hold comfortably.

If Graham instead opens a substantial lead, the latest survey will look more like an optimistic snapshot produced for the Democratic campaign.

For now, Republicans still have South Carolina’s long voting history working in their favor.

Democrats have something different: an internal poll they hope will persuade voters, donors and national party leaders that an upset once considered unlikely may at least be worth watching.

With Election Day approaching and control of the Senate carrying national consequences, the question is no longer whether Andrews’ campaign believes South Carolina is competitive.

It’s whether independent polling will give everyone else a reason to believe it, too.