Trump and the GOP is getting closer.
Republicans have received an encouraging new sign in California, where a fresh poll shows GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton closing the gap with Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead of the November election.
Becerra remains the frontrunner, but the new survey puts his support below 50% and shows a considerably closer contest than other recent polling.
According to the Hilton-commissioned survey, Becerra leads Hilton 49.2% to 41% among likely November voters, with another 9.8% undecided.
That gives the Democrat an 8.2-point advantage — substantially smaller than the 18-point lead Becerra held in a recent independent Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll.
The contrasting results are likely to fuel fresh debate over whether Republicans can make California’s governor’s race more competitive heading into the final months of the campaign.
Becerra Falls Below 50% in New Poll
One of the biggest numbers for Republicans is Becerra’s 49.2% support.
Although the Democrat continues to lead, falling below the majority threshold gives Hilton an argument that a significant portion of the electorate remains open to persuasion.
The survey also found nearly 10% of likely voters still undecided.
Hilton quickly seized on the results, arguing that Californians are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Becerra and years of Democratic leadership in Sacramento.
The Republican attacked Becerra’s record as secretary of Health and Human Services during the Biden administration and portrayed his opponent as part of California’s entrenched political establishment.
Hilton also accused Becerra of offering voters more of the same after years of one-party dominance in state government.
Those are campaign arguments from Hilton rather than conclusions established by the poll itself.
Becerra’s campaign did not respond to the California Post’s request for comment about the survey.
Important Detail Behind the New California Poll
There is an important qualification voters should know about the numbers.
The survey was commissioned by Hilton and conducted by David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University’s Political Analytics graduate program.
A total of 912 California registered voters were surveyed between Aug. 14 and Aug. 16 using an MMS text-to-web methodology. The reported margin of sampling error is 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Because the poll was commissioned by Hilton, its results should be considered alongside independent surveys of the race.
And those surveys have generally shown Becerra with a considerably larger advantage.
Independent Poll Gives Becerra Bigger Lead
A Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll conducted Aug. 3 through Aug. 9 found Becerra leading Hilton 55% to 37% among 2,310 likely voters.
That represents an 18-point advantage for the Democrat.
Still, even the Berkeley numbers showed some tightening compared with an earlier head-to-head survey in May, when Becerra’s advantage stood at 21 points.
The different surveys should not be treated as proof that the race suddenly moved by 10 points.
They used different samples and methodologies and were conducted during different periods. Those factors can produce substantially different results.
What the latest poll does provide, however, is an encouraging data point for Hilton as he attempts to pull off a Republican upset in one of America’s most heavily Democratic states.
California Voters Unhappy With Direction of State
Another finding could prove particularly important as the campaign moves toward Election Day.
The Hilton-commissioned survey found that 55.9% of likely voters believe California is on the “wrong track.”
Only 24.6% said the state is moving in the right direction.
Those numbers could give Hilton an opening to focus the race on issues including California’s cost of living, taxes, housing, energy prices, crime and the performance of state government.
For Republicans, the challenge will be convincing dissatisfied Californians that electing Hilton represents the change they want.
Becerra, meanwhile, can point to California’s substantial Democratic advantage and independent polling showing him maintaining a double-digit lead.
Becerra Faces Negative Favorability Rating
The latest survey also found potential trouble for Becerra in his personal approval numbers.
Just 37.2% of respondents viewed the Democrat favorably, while 49.8% viewed him unfavorably.
That produces a net favorability rating of negative 12.6 percentage points.
The result is notable because Becerra already enjoys widespread name recognition. Only 4.4% of voters surveyed said they had never heard of him.
Hilton’s numbers were closer to even.
About 41.5% viewed the Republican favorably, compared with 44.6% who viewed him unfavorably.
The poll also found that 25.2% of respondents viewed Hilton “very favorably,” compared with 11.5% who gave Becerra the same rating.
Large Group of California Voters Still Persuadable
Perhaps the biggest opportunity for both campaigns is the number of voters who haven’t completely made up their minds.
According to the survey, 32.9% of the November electorate is either undecided or not firmly committed to its current candidate.
Among voters who have already chosen someone, 74.5% said they will definitely support that candidate.
That leaves both Hilton and Becerra competing for a potentially meaningful pool of persuadable voters as Election Day approaches.
However, the survey also contained a warning for Republicans.
When undecided voters were allocated according to their stated preferences, Becerra’s advantage increased to 54.5% to 45.5%.
In other words, Hilton has gained an encouraging poll, but he still has considerable ground to make up.
Hilton Shows Strength in Orange County
Republicans have also received encouraging numbers from Orange County, one of Southern California’s most politically important regions.
A University of California, Irvine poll conducted earlier in the campaign found Hilton narrowly leading Becerra among Orange County voters, 47% to 44%.
Winning competitive areas such as Orange County would likely be essential to any realistic Republican path to victory statewide.
Hilton also received 41% support in the new statewide survey even though Republicans represented only 31.6% of its likely-voter electorate.
That could suggest some support beyond the Republican base, although additional independent polling would be needed to determine whether the pattern is consistent statewide.
Becerra Still Holds Major Advantages
Despite the positive news for Hilton, Becerra remains the candidate to beat.
Democrats represented 46.9% of likely voters in the latest survey, close to Becerra’s 49.2% overall support.
California’s longstanding Democratic advantage also creates a difficult electoral environment for any Republican running statewide.
And the independent Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey continues to paint a much more comfortable picture for Becerra, putting him ahead 55% to 37%.
The competing polls therefore tell two different stories.
One suggests Becerra maintains a commanding advantage.
The other suggests Hilton may have turned what once appeared to be a runaway Democratic victory into a race worth watching.
California Governor’s Race Heads Into Final Stretch
The next several weeks will determine which picture is closer to reality.
Hilton will likely continue presenting himself as the candidate of change, emphasizing voter dissatisfaction with Sacramento and concerns about affordability and state government.
Becerra will try to protect his advantage while making the case that California voters should keep the governor’s office in Democratic hands.
Becerra has also said he intends to participate in multiple debates against Hilton before Election Day, giving voters additional opportunities to compare the two candidates directly.
For Republicans, the latest poll provides something they have been looking for in deep-blue California: evidence that the contest could be closer than previously believed.
For Democrats, the broader polling picture remains considerably more favorable.
That makes the final months of California’s 2026 governor’s race worth watching as both campaigns fight over undecided voters and the future direction of the nation’s most populous state.
California’s general election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, with mail ballots beginning to reach voters in October.
