Republican Trailing In Key Race

A new Iowa Senate poll is putting fresh attention on one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections.

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by eight percentage points among registered Iowa voters, according to a new Marist Poll released Tuesday.

The survey found 50% of registered voters supporting Turek, compared with 42% backing Hinson. Another 2% favored someone else, while 5% were undecided or did not provide a preference.

The results give Democrats an advantage in this particular survey, but another finding shows why the Iowa Senate race remains highly competitive.

Most Iowa Voters Still Expect Hinson to Win

Although Turek leads in voter preference, most respondents believe Hinson will ultimately capture the Senate seat.

Marist found that 59% of registered voters expect Hinson to win the November election, while 37% believe Turek will prevail.

That creates an unusual split between which candidate voters currently support and which candidate they expect to win.

The distinction is important because polling reflects voter opinion at the time a survey is conducted rather than determining the eventual election result.

Iowa Senate Race Becomes Major 2026 Battleground

Iowa has traditionally been difficult territory for Democrats in recent statewide federal elections, but the 2026 Senate contest has become increasingly competitive.

The Cook Political Report currently classifies the Iowa Senate race as a “Toss Up,” placing it among the Senate contests receiving substantial national attention ahead of Election Day.

Cook moved the Iowa race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in August, citing public and private polling showing a more competitive contest.

With control of the U.S. Senate at stake nationally, both parties have strong reasons to focus resources and attention on Iowa during the closing weeks of the campaign.

Economy and High Prices Remain Major Issues

Pocketbook concerns are also playing an important role in the campaign.

Hinson has publicly acknowledged voters’ frustration over high gasoline, diesel and grocery costs, arguing that Iowa families should not have to absorb additional economic pressure associated with the war in Iran.

“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” Hinson wrote on X.

She called for policymakers to consider additional steps aimed at lowering costs for families, farmers and businesses.

Energy prices can be particularly important in Iowa because agriculture and transportation are major parts of the state economy. Higher diesel and fuel costs can affect farmers, truckers and consumers throughout the supply chain.

Trump Is Also Influencing Iowa’s Midterm Environment

President Donald Trump remains another significant factor in the political environment surrounding the race.

According to Marist, 43% of registered Iowa voters said their congressional vote would primarily represent opposition to Trump, while 22% said it would primarily represent support for him.

Another 35% said Trump would not be much of a factor in determining their congressional vote.

The same poll found Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot in Iowa, with 50% supporting a Democratic candidate and 45% supporting a Republican.

However, voter expectations again told a different story.

Marist found that 54% believed the Republican congressional candidate in their district would win, compared with 42% who expected the Democratic candidate to prevail.

What the Latest Iowa Poll Actually Shows

The Marist Poll surveyed 1,050 registered voters in Iowa between September 17 and September 20, 2026.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, and Marist noted that percentages were rounded to the nearest whole number.

That margin of error is important when interpreting the results. While Turek holds an eight-point advantage in this survey, a single poll should be viewed as one measurement of public opinion rather than a forecast of the November outcome.

Additional polling, campaign developments, economic conditions and voter turnout could all affect the race before Election Day.

Iowa Could Remain in the National Spotlight

The combination of competitive polling, economic concerns and a closely divided national political environment ensures that Iowa’s open Senate seat will continue receiving significant attention.

For Hinson, the challenge is maintaining Republican support while appealing to voters concerned about prices and economic conditions.

For Turek, the campaign will be focused on sustaining the support reflected in recent polling and turning that support into votes in November.

With the latest Marist survey showing an eight-point difference between the candidates—but most respondents still expecting Hinson to win—the Iowa Senate race remains one of the more closely watched contests heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterm elections.