Is this really the only way Trump can win?
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says President Donald Trump may have one clear path to delivering a historic Republican victory in this year’s midterm elections — and it all comes down to gas prices.
During a new interview on Miranda Devine’s “Pod Force One” podcast, Gingrich argued that Americans are still being crushed by high fuel costs and inflation fatigue. But if Trump can bring gasoline prices down to around $3 per gallon before Election Day, the longtime Republican strategist believes the GOP could dominate in November.
“If you tell me the price of gasoline on Labor Day, I can probably tell you who wins the election,” Gingrich said.
The former House speaker predicted Republicans could see “the largest off-year election victory in modern times” if voters begin feeling real financial relief by late summer.
For millions of working Americans and retirees living on fixed incomes, the price at the pump has become one of the biggest symbols of the economy. Every trip to the gas station serves as a reminder of rising costs, shrinking budgets, and years of inflation pressure.
According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline remains around $4.49 per gallon — still painfully high for many families across the country.
Gingrich believes timing is everything.
He said prices would likely need to begin falling around the Fourth of July so Americans have enough time to feel confident the economy is improving before they head to the polls in November.
At the same time, Gingrich suggested Trump may need to shift fully back into campaign mode and reconnect directly with voters on economic issues that matter most at the kitchen table.
The former speaker also pointed to Trump’s massive economic agenda — including the president’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” — as a possible turning point for the country.
Gingrich predicted the legislation could help spark stronger economic growth, rising wages, and increased hiring by the fall.
“We could be looking at five or six percent economic growth,” he said. “People could start seeing wages rise faster than inflation again.”
That message could resonate strongly with older voters who remember stronger purchasing power and lower energy prices during Trump’s first term.
Gingrich also blasted Democrats as increasingly “weak and woke,” arguing the party has moved too far left on cultural and economic issues.
According to the veteran Republican strategist, many Americans are growing frustrated with progressive policies, rising prices, border chaos, and what conservatives see as misplaced priorities in Washington.
But Gingrich warned there is one major obstacle standing in the way of lower gas prices: instability in the Middle East.
The former speaker said the Trump administration must ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open in order to stabilize global oil markets and prevent another major spike in fuel prices.
The strategic waterway handles a massive share of the world’s oil supply, and tensions involving Iran have already rattled energy markets in recent months.
After Iran restricted traffic through the strait earlier this year following Operation Epic Fury, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, sending shockwaves through global markets.
Trump administration officials have reportedly been working aggressively to secure a broader agreement with Tehran while maintaining military pressure in the region.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently vowed that the Strait of Hormuz “will open one way or another,” signaling the administration is prepared to take strong action if necessary.
President Trump also issued a warning of his own this week on Truth Social, saying any deal with Iran must fully protect American interests.
If negotiations collapse, Trump warned the conflict could quickly escalate.
For Republicans hoping to hold and expand their congressional majorities, Gingrich believes the political formula is surprisingly simple:
Lower gas prices. Stronger paychecks. A stronger economy.
And if voters start feeling relief before November, Republicans may be headed for a political wave unlike anything seen in decades.
