Voters Split On Key Election Issue

Public safety could become one of the defining issues of the November midterm elections, with a new national poll showing an overwhelming majority of likely voters are paying attention to crime — even as Republicans and Democrats remain locked in a dead heat over which party voters trust more to address it.

Crime and law enforcement are emerging as potentially decisive issues ahead of November, particularly among voters who say public safety will play a major role in determining which candidates receive their support.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey found that 81% of likely voters consider crime important to their decision in the upcoming congressional elections. Half of all respondents — 50% — said crime will be very important when they cast their ballots.

Those numbers suggest candidates in competitive House and Senate races may have difficulty avoiding the subject as Election Day approaches.

But there is also a warning sign for Republicans: Despite the GOP’s traditional emphasis on law and order, voters overall are currently divided over which party they trust to handle the issue.

Republicans and Democrats Deadlocked on Crime

The survey found 44% of likely voters trust Republicans more on crime and law enforcement, while another 44% place greater trust in Democrats.

The remaining 12% were unsure.

That represents a notable change from previous Rasmussen polling.

In February, Republicans held a five-point advantage on crime, leading Democrats 45% to 40%. Last October, the Republican advantage stood at nine points, 48% to 39%.

The latest numbers therefore suggest Democrats have managed to erase the GOP’s previous overall polling advantage on the issue.

For Republican candidates, that could make the final months of the campaign particularly important. Simply campaigning on a traditional law-and-order message may not be enough; candidates will also have to persuade voters that their policies can produce tangible improvements in community safety.

GOP Leads Among Voters Who Care Most About Crime

The overall tie, however, doesn’t tell the entire story.

Among Americans who said crime will be very important to their vote, Republicans have a stronger position.

In that group, 52% said they trust Republicans more to handle crime and law enforcement.

That finding could prove significant because highly motivated voters often play an outsized role in midterm elections.

The results also show intense partisan loyalty.

Approximately 85% of Republicans trust their own party more on crime, while 84% of Democrats say they have greater confidence in Democrats.

That leaves independent and unaffiliated voters as an especially important group for both parties.

Independent Voters Give Republicans an Edge

Among voters who identify with neither major political party, Republicans currently hold a modest advantage.

The poll found 41% of unaffiliated voters trust Republicans more on crime and law enforcement, compared with 36% who trust Democrats.

Another 24% remain uncertain.

That undecided bloc could become an important target for candidates campaigning in closely divided congressional districts and battleground states.

For older Americans concerned about neighborhood safety, policing, property crime and the security of their communities, the debate over which party offers the more effective approach could become particularly relevant as November approaches.

Men Favor Republicans by Double Digits

One of the poll’s most striking findings involves the difference between male and female voters.

Among men, 51% said they trust Republicans more to handle crime and law enforcement, compared with 37% who preferred Democrats.

Women, meanwhile, were more likely to describe crime as a very important consideration in determining their midterm vote.

That creates an interesting challenge for both parties: Republicans have a substantial advantage among men on the issue, while women appear particularly concerned about crime itself.

Candidates capable of connecting public-safety proposals with the everyday concerns of families, homeowners, retirees and local communities could therefore have an opportunity to win over voters who have not firmly chosen a side.

White, Black and Hispanic Voters Show Different Priorities

The survey also revealed significant differences among racial and ethnic groups.

Among white voters, 50% trusted Republicans more on crime and law enforcement, compared with 40% who trusted Democrats.

Black voters strongly favored Democrats on the issue, with 63% trusting Democrats, compared with 24% who preferred Republicans.

Hispanic voters were evenly divided at 44% for Republicans and 44% for Democrats.

Among voters belonging to other minority groups, 47% trusted Democrats more, compared with 28% who favored Republicans.

The even split among Hispanic voters could be especially noteworthy in competitive races where relatively small changes in voter support can influence the final result.

Lower-Income Americans Particularly Concerned About Crime

Income also appears to influence how strongly Americans view the issue.

Voters earning less than $30,000 annually were the most likely to say crime will be very important when deciding how to vote in November.

Meanwhile, Americans earning between $50,000 and $200,000 per year were among the most likely to trust Republicans on crime and law enforcement.

Those findings demonstrate why public safety cannot easily be dismissed as an issue affecting only one demographic or economic group.

Crime can affect families through concerns about personal safety, property values, local businesses, insurance costs and the overall quality of life in a community.

Direction of the Country Closely Tied to Views on Crime

The poll also found a strong relationship between Americans’ views about the country’s direction and which party they trust on public safety.

Among respondents who said the United States is heading in the right direction, 79% trusted Republicans more on crime and law enforcement.

Among those who said America is on the wrong track, 59% trusted Democrats more.

The sharp divide illustrates how perceptions of crime have become intertwined with Americans’ broader opinions about political leadership and the condition of the country.

Why Crime Could Matter in the November Midterms

The biggest takeaway from the survey isn’t simply that Republicans and Democrats are tied.

It’s that more than eight in ten likely voters say crime matters to their decision.

With control of Congress at stake, even relatively small shifts among independent voters could prove important in competitive races.

Republicans still hold advantages among several important groups, including voters who consider crime very important and unaffiliated voters. But the GOP’s previous overall lead has disappeared, giving Republican candidates an incentive to make a clearer case for their approach to policing, prosecution and community safety.

Democrats, meanwhile, can point to their improved standing as evidence that the political landscape surrounding crime is changing.

For voters, the campaign could ultimately come down to something more practical than party labels: Which candidates can convince Americans that their policies will actually make families and communities safer?

With 81% of likely voters saying crime will factor into their November decision, the answer could help determine which party controls Congress.

About the Poll

The Rasmussen Reports survey included 1,222 likely U.S. voters and was conducted by telephone and online from Aug. 2 through Aug. 4. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.