Here’s what happened.
New immigration data showing a dramatic decline in legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries is generating widespread reaction among Republican lawmakers and conservative commentators, while immigration advocates are raising concerns about the policies behind the shift.
The debate intensified after a White House social media account highlighted research from the Cato Institute showing that legal immigration from 45 majority-Muslim countries had fallen sharply compared with levels recorded before President Donald Trump returned to office.
According to the Cato analysis, monthly immigrant visa issuances and permanent refugee admissions from those countries fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to just 808 in February 2026.
That amounts to a decline of approximately 96 percent.
Legal Immigration From Muslim-Majority Countries Falls Sharply
The numbers represent one of the most significant immigration shifts since Trump returned to the White House.
Cato’s analysis examined immigration from 45 countries where Muslims make up a majority of the population. Nearly all experienced substantial declines during the period studied.
Afghanistan recorded one of the steepest drops.
According to the analysis, the number of Afghan immigrants and refugees admitted through the categories examined fell from 5,563 in December 2024 to only nine in February 2026.
Pakistan also experienced a major decline.
A small number of countries, including Qatar, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates, saw increases during the same period.
Overall, however, the decrease was considerably larger among the majority-Muslim countries included in the study.
Cato reported that immigration from those nations declined about 96 percent, compared with a roughly 36 percent decline among other countries.
The figures specifically measure immigrant visas and permanent refugee admissions. They do not represent every form of legal entry into the United States.
Republicans Celebrate the Immigration Numbers
The release quickly drew praise from Republican lawmakers and conservative political figures.
Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas credited the Trump administration with delivering what he described as an important immigration victory.
Florida Republican Rep. Randy Fine also welcomed the numbers.
Brandon Herrera, the Republican nominee for Congress in Texas’ 23rd District, said the administration should continue pursuing similar policies.
Other conservative commentators pointed to the figures as evidence that immigration policy has changed considerably under Republican leadership.
The reaction also spilled into the growing debate surrounding the 2026 midterm elections.
Some Republican activists argued that voters frustrated by other political issues should consider the administration’s immigration record when deciding how to vote.
Trump Administration Expands Immigration Restrictions
The decline comes as the Trump administration has adopted a series of immigration and entry restrictions since returning to office.
Those measures have included tighter visa screening, restrictions involving certain countries, changes affecting refugee admissions and additional scrutiny of people seeking entry into the United States.
The administration has defended tougher immigration controls as necessary for national security, enforcement and the protection of American workers.
Trump has made immigration enforcement a central part of his political agenda for more than a decade.
Supporters argue that stricter controls give the federal government greater ability to determine who enters the country and help prevent abuse of immigration programs.
Critics counter that broad restrictions can prevent workers, families and other lawful immigrants from entering the United States.
Cato Researcher Criticizes Trump Immigration Policies
One of the most notable responses came from David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute and the researcher behind the data highlighted by the White House.
Despite producing the research showing the decline, Bier strongly criticized the administration’s policies.
Cato generally supports fewer restrictions on legal immigration, and Bier has argued that reducing lawful immigration can negatively affect American businesses, families and economic growth.
Responding to the White House’s use of his research, Bier accused the administration of violating immigration law and harming the country.
The administration and its supporters dispute that characterization.
Several immigration policies introduced during Trump’s current term have become the subject of federal lawsuits, meaning some legal questions surrounding the administration’s actions remain unresolved.
Trump’s Immigration Record Revives First-Term Legal Battle
The current debate has also renewed attention on one of the most consequential immigration cases from Trump’s first presidency.
During his first term, Trump imposed restrictions on entry from several countries as part of a national-security policy.
Those restrictions faced immediate legal challenges.
Lower federal courts initially blocked portions of the policy, but the dispute eventually reached the Supreme Court.
In 2018, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Trump v. Hawaii to uphold the presidential proclamation at issue in that case.
The majority concluded that federal immigration law gave the president broad authority to restrict entry when the administration determined that doing so served the national interest.
The Court also emphasized that the proclamation was structured around nationality and national-security considerations rather than establishing an explicit religious test.
However, the 2018 ruling addressed that particular presidential proclamation and does not automatically resolve every legal challenge involving immigration restrictions implemented years later.
Immigration Remains a Major Issue Ahead of the Midterms
Immigration continues to be one of the most closely watched political issues heading toward the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans have frequently emphasized border enforcement, visa screening, deportations and restrictions on immigration programs as central parts of their agenda.
Democrats and immigration advocates have generally pushed back against policies they view as overly restrictive, particularly when they affect lawful immigrants, refugees or families.
The latest Cato figures provide Republicans with a measurable example of how dramatically immigration patterns have changed since Trump’s return to office.
From December 2024 to February 2026, immigrant visa issuances and permanent refugee admissions from the 45 majority-Muslim countries examined by Cato fell from more than 21,000 per month to fewer than 1,000.
That decline is now becoming part of a broader political argument over immigration, national security, legal authority and the direction of U.S. immigration policy.
Why the New Immigration Numbers Matter
The significance of the data extends beyond the immediate political reaction.
First, the numbers show that immigration policy changes can produce major shifts in legal admissions within a relatively short period.
Second, the decline demonstrates that the Trump administration’s immigration agenda involves much more than illegal border crossings. Legal immigration, refugee programs and visa policies are also being reshaped.
Third, the controversy surrounding the data highlights a fundamental disagreement over immigration policy.
Supporters of tighter restrictions argue that the federal government should maintain greater control over immigration levels and screening.
Opponents argue that legal immigration contributes workers, entrepreneurs, students and families to the United States and should remain accessible to qualified applicants.
Those competing views are likely to remain at the center of the national immigration debate.
What Happens Next?
The future of the administration’s immigration restrictions could depend on several factors.
Federal courts are continuing to consider challenges to some immigration policies.
Congress could also attempt to change immigration law, although major immigration legislation has historically been difficult to pass.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration could continue using executive authority to adjust visa rules, screening requirements and entry restrictions.
For voters, the debate is likely to remain prominent as Republicans and Democrats compete for control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
The latest figures have given supporters of Trump’s immigration agenda a new statistic to highlight.
Critics, however, are likely to continue questioning both the economic consequences and legal foundations of the administration’s approach.
With immigration remaining one of the country’s most divisive policy debates, the dramatic decline in admissions from Muslim-majority nations is unlikely to disappear from the political conversation anytime soon.
