Democrats Flip Key Arizona Seat

Democrat Amish Shah is projected to win Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, taking a Republican-held U.S. House seat that eluded him two years ago. Decision Desk HQ called the race for Shah over Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker who had President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Shah led with 52.5 percent of the vote to Feely’s 45.5 percent when the race was called, with more than 95 percent of the estimated vote reported.

An open seat changes the race

Shah, an emergency room physician and former state lawmaker, lost to Republican Rep. David Schweikert by 3.8 percentage points in 2024. Schweikert’s unsuccessful run for governor left the congressional seat open this year, giving Shah a second chance without having to face a sitting member of Congress.

The district covers Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek and parts of northeast Phoenix. Its 2024 results showed how differently the same district could vote from one race to the next. Trump carried it by about 3 points, while Democrat Ruben Gallego won it by about 5 points in his U.S. Senate race.

By the closing days of the campaign, election forecasters saw an advantage for Shah. The Cook Political Report moved the race from a toss-up to Lean Democratic in September. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gave Shah a 76 percent chance of winning heading into Election Day.

How Shah and Feely made their case

Shah argued that his record in the Arizona Legislature showed he could work with Republicans. He highlighted the support of former Republican state House Speaker Rusty Bowers and pointed out that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had backed his primary rival, former broadcaster Marlene Galán-Woods. Shah used that primary win to make the case that he could exercise his own judgment in Washington.

Feely argued that his relationship with Trump would give Arizona an ally in the White House and said Shah was too liberal for the district. A political newcomer who played 14 seasons in the NFL, including four with the Arizona Cardinals, Feely initially ran in the more Republican-friendly 5th District. He switched races at Trump’s urging and secured the president’s endorsement.

Feely backed much of Trump’s agenda, but he broke with the administration over its proposed cuts to Arizona’s share of Colorado River water. The dispute gave Feely a chance to show where he was willing to part ways with the president on an issue with direct consequences for Arizona.

The projected result puts Shah about 7 points ahead in a district that sent Schweikert back to Congress just two years earlier. For Republicans, it means losing a House seat in a part of Arizona where Trump had carried the presidential vote and the party had held the congressional seat on the same ballot.