Senate Republicans Moving Away From Red States

Senate Republicans are reshaping their 2026 election strategy, directing campaign resources toward a smaller group of competitive states as the battle for control of the U.S. Senate enters its final weeks.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is concentrating its spending on defending Republican-held seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas while also targeting Democratic-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.

The shift leaves two major Southern battlegrounds — Georgia and North Carolina — outside the group of states receiving the committee’s primary focus.

The decision highlights the difficult financial choices facing Republicans as multiple Senate races compete for campaign money, advertising and organizational support.

Tim Scott Outlines Republican Senate Priorities

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, reportedly outlined the strategy during a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday.

According to Politico’s reporting on the meeting, Scott identified Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas as important Republican defenses while pointing to Michigan and New Hampshire as Democratic-held seats where Republicans see opportunities.

Georgia and North Carolina were not included in his reported list of spending priorities.

The development does not mean Republicans have abandoned either contest. Instead, it reflects the reality that national campaign organizations must decide where additional dollars could have the greatest impact as Election Day approaches.

North Carolina Remains a Major Senate Battleground

North Carolina features one of the country’s most closely watched Senate contests.

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is running against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

North Carolina has supported Donald Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns, voting for him in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

At the Senate level, however, the 2026 race remains highly competitive.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the North Carolina contest as Lean Democrat, meaning the race is competitive but Democrats presently hold an advantage in its assessment.

Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2008, adding another layer of interest to the contest.

Whatley’s campaign has publicly expressed confidence that it will have the resources necessary to compete through Election Day.

Campaign spokesperson DJ Griffin pointed to previous comments from Cooper about North Carolina’s political history, arguing that Republican-leaning undecided voters could still become important during the closing stretch.

“We’re confident we will have the resources to get our message out to North Carolina,” Griffin said.

Georgia Senate Race Also Draws National Attention

Georgia presents another major test for Republicans.

Republican Rep. Mike Collins is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is seeking a second term.

Georgia has become one of America’s most closely divided political states over the past decade.

Trump carried Georgia in 2016, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly won the state in 2020, and Trump won Georgia again in 2024.

The Cook Political Report currently places Georgia in its Lean Democrat category.

That puts the contest outside Cook’s current group of seven Senate Toss Ups, although Georgia remains competitive and continues to attract national attention.

Seven Senate Races Rated Toss Ups

The Republican spending decision comes as the number of highly competitive Senate races has expanded.

Cook Political Report currently identifies seven contests as Toss Ups:

• Alaska
• Iowa
• Maine
• Michigan
• New Hampshire
• Ohio
• Texas

Those seven races include five Republican-held seats and two Democratic-held seats.

That concentration of competitive races helps explain why national party committees face difficult decisions about where to direct advertising dollars and other campaign resources.

Ohio Becomes a Major Republican Defense

Ohio is among the Republican-held seats receiving increased attention.

Republican Sen. Jon Husted is facing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown previously represented Ohio in the Senate before losing his seat in 2024.

During the Republican meeting, Scott reportedly presented polling showing Brown ahead of Husted.

Cook Political Report currently rates the Ohio Senate contest as a Toss Up.

That makes Ohio one of the states where Republican spending could play an important role during the campaign’s final weeks.

New Hampshire Gives Republicans a Pickup Opportunity

Republicans are also putting additional emphasis on New Hampshire.

Former Republican Sen. John Sununu is running against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas for the state’s open Senate seat.

Scott reportedly showed Republicans polling indicating a close contest between the two candidates.

Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire into its Toss Up category in September, placing it among the most competitive Senate elections in the country.

Because the seat is currently held by Democrats, New Hampshire represents an opportunity for Republicans to gain ground rather than simply defend an existing seat.

Michigan Offers Another Possible GOP Pickup

Michigan is another state where Republicans are focusing resources.

The state’s open Senate contest is currently rated a Toss Up by Cook Political Report.

Like New Hampshire, Michigan gives Republicans an opportunity to compete for a seat currently held by Democrats.

That makes the state strategically important as Republicans attempt to protect their majority while looking for possible gains elsewhere.

Texas Could Be One of the Most Expensive Senate Races

Texas is also receiving increased attention from Republican strategists.

The state presents a particular financial challenge because statewide campaigns must advertise across numerous large and expensive media markets.

Sen. John Cornyn acknowledged that campaign officials will eventually have to make difficult decisions about where money can have the greatest effect.

“At some point, I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Cornyn told Politico.

Cook Political Report currently rates the Texas Senate contest as a Toss Up.

Texas and Iowa were moved into the Toss Up category in August, expanding the number of Republican-held seats considered highly competitive.

Republicans Face a Complicated 2026 Senate Map

The broader battle for control of the Senate has become increasingly competitive.

Cook Political Report said in its September 23 analysis that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber. Its current assessment identifies several possible paths for both parties depending on what happens across the major battleground states.

That environment forces Republican campaign officials to balance two objectives at the same time: protecting vulnerable GOP-held seats while investing in opportunities to defeat Democratic incumbents or capture open seats.

Every dollar spent in one state is money that cannot be spent somewhere else.

That is why decisions involving states such as Georgia and North Carolina can attract significant attention even when Republican candidates remain actively campaigning there.

What the Spending Shift Means

For Republican voters following the 2026 midterm elections, the biggest takeaway is not that Georgia or North Carolina have disappeared from the political map.

Both remain competitive Senate contests.

Instead, the NRSC’s reported strategy shows how national Republicans are prioritizing resources across a growing number of difficult races.

Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas represent important defensive contests for the GOP, while Michigan and New Hampshire provide potential opportunities to gain Democratic-held seats.

Georgia and North Carolina remain consequential, but current race ratings show Democrats with an advantage in both states. Meanwhile, seven other Senate contests are currently considered Toss Ups by Cook Political Report.

With several competitive elections unfolding at the same time, campaign spending decisions are likely to remain an important part of the 2026 Senate battle through Election Day.