Newsom Gets Exposed Again

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing new scrutiny over a major housing statistic his administration has repeatedly promoted after an analysis found the calculation relied on incomplete data from cities and counties across the state.

Newsom’s administration has pointed to a reported 59% increase in housing construction as evidence that California is making progress on its longstanding housing shortage.

But a Politico analysis found a significant problem with that number: The earlier data used to calculate the increase was missing housing figures from numerous California communities, including major jurisdictions such as San Diego.

The missing information potentially made California’s subsequent housing growth appear far larger than it actually was.

For California homeowners, renters and taxpayers already dealing with some of the nation’s highest housing costs, the controversy raises fresh questions about whether Sacramento has accurately portrayed its progress in addressing the state’s housing crisis.

Newsom’s 59% Housing Claim Comes Under Scrutiny

Newsom’s administration cited the 59% housing increase in five separate news releases, according to Politico.

The statistic appeared to offer an encouraging picture of California’s housing market under Newsom.

However, Politico found that the calculation compared years in which substantially different numbers of local governments actually reported housing completion data.

That matters because missing information from major cities can dramatically alter the statewide totals.

Michael Lens, an urban planning professor at UCLA and director of the university’s Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies, reviewed the findings and described the problem as “a pretty basic error.”

San Diego Housing Data Was Missing

The biggest problem dates back to 2018, the year before Newsom became governor.

More than one-quarter of California’s 539 local governments either failed to provide housing statistics that year or reported that zero homes had been constructed, according to Politico.

San Diego was among them.

That omission was particularly significant considering the size of the city and its housing market.

More than 25,000 homes had been permitted in San Diego during the previous five years, according to the report.

Yet the data used in the statewide calculation did not reflect housing completions from the city in 2018.

Stockton, San Bernardino and unincorporated portions of Orange County were among other jurisdictions that either did not provide figures or reported no completed homes.

By 2024, reporting had become considerably more comprehensive.

An additional 69 local governments were providing housing completion figures, including San Diego.

The result was an uneven comparison: The 2018 baseline was missing data from numerous communities, while the 2024 figure included substantially more of them.

That can make the percentage increase between the two years appear much larger even if actual statewide home construction did not grow at the same rate.

Independent Data Shows a Much Smaller Increase

Other housing statistics cited in the analysis tell a different story.

Data from real estate information company Cotality showed that California housing completions increased approximately 18% between 2018 and 2024.

An 18% increase would still represent growth in new housing construction.

But it is dramatically lower than the 59% figure repeatedly promoted by Newsom’s administration.

The difference is particularly striking because housing remains one of California’s biggest economic and political challenges.

U.S. Census Bureau permitting statistics cited by Politico provide another measurement of California’s housing performance. Those figures indicated that home production declined when comparing 2018 with more recent years.

Different housing datasets can measure different stages of development, so they do not necessarily produce identical results. But the conflicting figures demonstrate why complete and consistent data is important when elected officials make claims about housing progress.

Newsom Promised California 3.5 Million New Homes

The dispute is especially notable because Newsom entered the governor’s office with an extraordinarily ambitious housing promise.

During his campaign for governor, Newsom pledged that California would produce 3.5 million new homes during his tenure.

That would require construction of approximately 500,000 housing units every year.

California has fallen far short of that pace.

The state has instead constructed roughly 100,000 to 120,000 housing units annually, according to Politico.

Even at the high end of that range, California would be producing less than one-quarter of the 500,000 homes per year envisioned under Newsom’s original goal.

The gap between the promise and actual construction has become increasingly important as California families continue confronting expensive homes, high rents and affordability concerns.

California Housing Costs Remain a Major Concern

California’s housing shortage affects far more than prospective homebuyers.

High housing costs can influence household budgets, retirement decisions, property markets, homelessness, business expansion and where families choose to live.

Older Californians and retirees can face particularly difficult decisions when rising insurance, taxes, maintenance expenses and other household costs are combined with an expensive housing market.

Working families face a different challenge as they attempt to balance mortgage payments or rent with groceries, utilities, transportation and other everyday expenses.

For younger Californians, high home prices can make the traditional goal of homeownership increasingly difficult to reach.

That makes the accuracy of the state government’s housing statistics especially important.

Californians need reliable numbers to determine whether policies coming out of Sacramento are actually increasing the housing supply enough to improve affordability.

Newsom’s Office Stands Behind the 59% Figure

Despite the questions surrounding the underlying data, Newsom’s office continues to defend its calculation.

“Calculating housing completions using the data as reported by cities and counties shows an increase of 59% during this administration,” Newsom spokesperson Tara Gallegos told Politico.

Gallegos also defended the governor’s broader housing agenda, saying his policies are producing changes intended to increase California’s housing supply for years to come.

The administration’s position is essentially that it calculated the increase using the information local governments officially submitted.

Critics, however, can point to a different issue: Whether comparing an incomplete 2018 dataset with more comprehensive figures from 2024 provides Californians with an accurate picture of the state’s housing progress.

The Numbers Tell Very Different Stories

The controversy ultimately comes down to three important figures.

Newsom’s administration says housing completions increased 59%.

Cotality data cited by Politico puts the increase at approximately 18% between 2018 and 2024.

And Newsom’s original campaign goal called for approximately 500,000 new housing units every year, while California has actually been producing roughly 100,000 to 120,000 annually.

Those are substantial differences.

Newsom can point to housing reforms enacted during his administration and argue that California is moving in the right direction.

But voters can also compare those accomplishments with the ambitious promises he made before taking office — and question whether the statistics being promoted by Sacramento accurately reflect conditions across the entire state.

Why This Matters for California Taxpayers and Homeowners

Housing policy ultimately affects millions of Californians who have little interest in statistical disputes between politicians and policy experts.

They want to know whether more homes are being built, whether housing is becoming easier to afford and whether state policies are delivering measurable results.

For homeowners, renters, retirees and taxpayers, those are practical questions involving household finances and quality of life.

California may indeed be building more homes than it did when Newsom entered office.

The bigger question is whether that increase is closer to the 59% figure promoted by his administration or the considerably smaller increase found using a different housing dataset.

With Newsom’s original 3.5 million-home promise still far from being achieved, the latest questions surrounding the state’s housing statistics are likely to put even more attention on his record.

And for Californians struggling with the cost of housing, the most important measurement may ultimately be much simpler: whether the state is building enough homes to make California more affordable for ordinary families.